A Bubble Team's Worst Nightmare

It happens every year. A major conference team comes out of nowhere in their conference tournament to make it to the championship and, in some cases, win the title. It also happens in some mid-major conferences that were expected to get one bid but then send two dancing because of upsets in the league tournaments.

The aforementioned situation is a nightmare for bubble teams hoping to get bids to the NCAA Tournament. When teams that are locks for the NCAA Tournament lose in their respective conference tournament and a mediocre team that gets hot at the right team either makes the championship or wins the automatic bid, teams on the fence become some of the most nervous people in the world. You hear the announcers every March:

"Well, [fill in bubble team of choice] has to root for [fill in league favorite] if they want a bid to the NCAA Tournament. If [fill in upstart team] pulls off yet another upset, it means that there is one less at-large bid for the bubble teams."

This year is not going to be any different. With all of the parity in many of the leagues across the country this season, there are several teams that could make Cinderella runs in their respective conference tournaments. In some leagues, these teams are in the lower half of the league and win an early game before getting on a run, and all of a sudden they look like the second coming of the UNLV teams from the early '90s. In other conferences, these Cinderella teams are just ones that have a decent chance to upset the heavy favorite and steal the automatic bid.

Who are the main candidates to make this kind of run in Championship Week 2008? Let's take a look at several conferences from around the country, and find teams that have the ability to win a few games in early March.

ACC
Florida State: The Seminoles looked like they could potentially make a run at an at-large bid when they started out 12-4 and were playing very solid basketball. They then lost eight of their next 10, as well as starting guard Isaiah Swann, essentially eliminating them from the postseason conversation. However, FSU has won three in a row, including victories over Clemson and at North Carolina State. The ‘Noles have an outstanding perimeter group, led by Toney Douglas and Jason Rich, and Uche Echefu is a solid scorer and rebounder on the inside. They force steals and play tough defense. Furthermore, the ‘Noles are one of the best free-throw shooting teams in the country, which will help in close games.

Big East
Cincinnati: Had the Bearcats played better in the non-conference portion of the season, we would be talking about them in the thick of the at-large race. Instead, they are simply going to be a tough out in the conference tournament. They already have wins over Louisville, Pittsburgh, West Virginia and Syracuse, and are 8-7 in the league. Deonta Vaughn is one of the best guards in the Big East, and John Williamson has played much better of late. The Bearcats play very tough defense and guard the perimeter aggressively.

Big Ten
Minnesota: The Golden Gophers seemed poised for an at-large bid earlier in the Big Ten season, when they suffered close losses to Indiana and Michigan State, and had gone 10-2 in the non-conference. However, the tight defeats soon began to pile up and a 2-4 start was too much to overcome for an NCAA bid. Lawrence McKenzie and freshman Blake Hoffarber are outstanding three-point shooters, while Dan Coleman and Spencer Tollackson form a very solid frontcourt duo. Minnesota plays very good defense, forcing turnovers all over the court.

Big 12
Oklahoma State: The Cowboys has been extremely inconsistent all season, but they have the momentum and perimeter talent to pull off a couple of upsets in the conference tournament. They opened the Big 12 season with a win, but then proceeded to lost six consecutive games. However, since then, they are 5-1 with wins over Kansas, Texas A&M and Baylor. The top five scorers for OSU are perimeter players, but they all average at least 9.6 points per game. James Anderson is one of the best freshmen in the conference, while Marcus Dove is an outstanding defender. The key is point guard Byron Eaton.

Pac-10
Washington: With eight teams still in relative contention for an NCAA bid and Oregon State being absolutely horrendous, it leaves the Huskies as the lone team that could really ruin a bubble team’s day. Washington already has wins over UCLA, Arizona, Arizona State and Oregon, and has won three of its last five. The Huskies end with three road games, so they will likely be the forgotten team heading into the Pac-10 tourney. Jon Brockman is a 20-10 threat every night inside, while Ryan Appleby is an outstanding three-point shooter. Justin Dentmon is a solid point guard who needs to step up if UW is to make a run.

SEC
LSU: The Tigers have one of the youngest and least experienced starting line-ups in the country, but they seem to be coming together at the right time and could be a sleeper in the SEC tourney. They had an eight-game losing streak in January but they are 4-4 since then, with wins over Mississippi and Florida, and close losses to Kentucky and Tennessee. Marcus Thornton is a big-time scorer at the guard position, and Anthony Randolph is one of the most talented freshmen in the country. Chris Johnson has come on strong this season. The Tigers’ size makes them tough to score on inside the arc.

Atlantic-10
La Salle: The Explorers came into the season with extremely limited expectations due to the fact that they haven’t been competitive in awhile and did not return many Atlantic-10-caliber players. A 3-9 start didn’t do much to lift those hopes, but things have completely turned around since then. They are 10-4 after that terrible start, with wins over Saint Joseph’s, Dayton and Duquesne. La Salle is led by one of the best backcourts in the league in Darnell Harris and Rodney Green, who can carry them to wins.

Missouri Valley
Bradley: This pick is based strictly on the fact that Daniel Ruffin returns from his indefinite suspension; if not, the Braves are going to get out of the first-round of the conference tournament. With him, though, they have the ability to beat anyone in the league. Ruffin is an outstanding point guard who takes care of the ball distributes well, while Jeremy Crouch is an outstanding three-point shooter. Theron Wilson is a solid scorer and rebounder. Bradley has wins over Drake, Illinois State and Creighton – but without Ruffin, they can’t beat those teams.

Mountain West
Utah: The Mountain West has several good teams at the top of the league, but none are unbeatable and all have flaws. The Utes have lost three consecutive games, but they have a lot of close losses and have the talent to beat anybody in the conference. Luke Nevill is one of the better big men in the country, while Johnnie Bryant is a very solid scorer in the backcourt. Tyler Kepkay is a decent point guard who can distribute. They are an outstanding rebounding team and are efficient from the field.

West Coast
San Diego: With Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s locks for the NCAA Tournament, bubble teams around the country are going to worry if a third team wins the conference tournament. San Diego is the best bet to potentially pull the upsets; it has already defeated Saint Mary’s and the conference tournament is in San Diego. Brandon Johnson is one of the best guards in the conference, and can carry the Toreros to victory if he is hitting his shots. Gyno Pomare is a very good inside scorer and rebounder, while Rob Jones is versatile and can do a variety of things on the court.

Other Teams to Keep an Eye On: Georgia Southern (Southern); Cleveland State (Horizon); Akron (MAC); Old Dominion (CAA); North Texas (Sun Belt); Central Florida (Conference-USA)