Projected Final Standings
With the NCAA Tournament looming just around the corner, the bubble is the main topic on everyone's minds. People are coming up with scenarios for various teams on the fence to see if they would make the Tournament with a certain finish. For instance, several experts say things like "Well, if so and so finishes 2-1 down the stretch and wins a game in their conference tournament, they should be in."
I began thinking about that, and decided to project the final records of every major conference team and every team with a shot at the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team, including tie-breakers for seedings in the conference tournaments. The records also include how I think they will do in their respective conference tournaments. Without further ado, here is how I think every team will finish the season heading into the Selection Show on March 16th:
Projections made before games played on Tuesday, February 26th. Italics identify projected conference tournament winner
ACC
1. Duke: 29-4 (14-2)
2. North Carolina: 30-3 (13-3)
3. Clemson: 22-9 (10-6)
4. Miami (Fl.): 22-9 (9-7)
5. Virginia Tech: 19-13 (9-7)
6. Maryland: 20-13 (9-7)
7. Wake Forest: 19-12 (8-8)
8. Georgia Tech: 13-19 (6-10)
9. North Carolina State: 17-15 (5-11)
10. Boston College: 14-16 (5-11)
11. Florida State: 16-16 (5-11)
12. Virginia: 13-17 (3-13)
Big East
1. Georgetown: 26-6 (14-4)
2. Connecticut: 26-7 (14-4)
3. Louisville: 27-7 (14-4)
4. Notre Dame: 24-7 (14-4)
5. Marquette: 24-8 (12-6)
6. West Virginia: 22-10 (11-7)
7. Cincinnati: 15-16 (10-8)
8. Syracuse: 20-12 (10-8)
9. Pittsburgh: 21-11 (9-9)
10. Villanova: 19-13 (8-10)
11. Seton Hall: 17-15 (7-11)
12. DePaul: 10-21 (5-13)
13. St. John’s: 11-19 (5-13)
14. Providence: 14-16 (5-13)
15. South Florida: 12-19 (3-15)
16. Rutgers: 10-21 (2-16)
Big Ten
1. Wisconsin: 27-5 (16-2)
2. Indiana: 28-5 (15-3)
3. Purdue: 25-8 (15-3)
4. Michigan State: 26-8 (12-6)
5. Ohio State: 19-13 (10-8)
6. Minnesota: 19-13 (8-10)
7. Iowa: 13-19 (6-12)
8. Penn State: 14-17 (6-12)
9. Michigan: 11-21 (6-12)
10. Illinois: 13-20 (4-14)
11. Northwestern: 6-23 (0-16)
Big 12
1. Texas: 28-5 (14-2)
2. Kansas: 29-4 (12-4)
3. Kansas State: 19-11 (10-6)
4. Baylor: 20-10 (9-7)
5. Texas A&M: 23-9 (8-8)
6. Oklahoma: 22-12 (8-8)
7. Missouri: 17-15 (7-9)
8. Oklahoma State: 16-15 (7-9)
9. Nebraska: 18-12 (7-9)
10. Texas Tech: 16-15 (7-9)
11. Iowa State: 13-18 (4-12)
12. Colorado: 10-20 (3-13)
Pac-10
1. UCLA: 29-4 (15-3)
2. Stanford: 25-7 (13-5)
3. Washington State: 25-8 (11-7)
4. Arizona: 19-12 (10-8)
5. USC: 20-12 (10-8)
6. Arizona State: 19-12 (9-9)
7. Oregon: 19-13 (9-9)
8. California: 17-14 (7-11)
9. Washington: 15-17 (6-12)
10. Oregon State: 6-24 (0-18)
SEC
East
1. Tennessee: 30-3 (14-2)
2. Kentucky: 20-12 (12-4)
3. Vanderbilt: 28-6 (11-5)
4. Florida: 23-10 (9-7)
5. South Carolina: 15-17 (6-10)
6. Georgia: 13-16 (5-11)
West
1. Mississippi State: 21-11 (11-5)
2. Arkansas: 21-10 (10-6)
3. Mississippi: 21-11 (6-10)
4. LSU: 11-19 (5-11)
5. Auburn: 14-16 (4-12)
6. Alabama: 14-18 (3-13)
Atlantic-10
1. Xavier: 29-5 (14-2)
2. Saint Joseph’s: 23-9 (12-4)
3. Massachusetts: 22-10 (10-6)
4. La Salle: 14-16 (9-7)
5. Richmond: 16-14 (9-7)
6. Temple: 17-15 (9-7)
7. Rhode Island: 23-10 (8-8)
8. Charlotte: 18-14 (8-8)
9. Fordham: 13-15 (8-8)
10. Duquesne: 17-13 (7-9)
11. Saint Louis: 15-15 (7-9)
12. Dayton: 20-12 (6-10)
Missouri Valley
1. Drake: 26-4 (15-3)
2. Southern Illinois: 20-13 (12-6)
3. Illinois State: 21-10 (12-6)
4. Creighton: 20-10 (10-8)
Mountain West
1. BYU: 26-8 (13-3)
2. UNLV: 25-7 (12-4)
3. New Mexico: 26-7 (12-4)
4. San Diego State: 20-11 (10-6)
Conference-USA
1. Memphis: 33-1 (16-0)
2. Houston: 24-8 (12-4)
3. UAB: 23-11 (11-5)
Colonial
1. VCU: 26-6 (15-3)
2. George Mason: 23-10 (13-5)
Horizon
1. Butler: 29-3 (16-2)
2. Wright State: 21-10 (12-6)
3. Cleveland State: 18-12 (12-6)
Mid-American
1. Kent State: 29-5 (14-2)
2. Ohio: 23-10 (11-5)
3. Akron: 21-11 (10-6)
Sun Belt
1. South Alabama: 26-5 (16-2)
2. Western Kentucky: 24-7 (16-2)
West Coast
1. Gonzaga: 25-7 (13-1)
2. Saint Mary’s: 26-5 (12-2)
Note: Davidson (Southern) and Stephen F. Austin (Southland) will go undefeated the rest of the way in the regular season, and will also win their respective conference tournaments.
I began thinking about that, and decided to project the final records of every major conference team and every team with a shot at the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team, including tie-breakers for seedings in the conference tournaments. The records also include how I think they will do in their respective conference tournaments. Without further ado, here is how I think every team will finish the season heading into the Selection Show on March 16th:
Projections made before games played on Tuesday, February 26th. Italics identify projected conference tournament winner
ACC
1. Duke: 29-4 (14-2)
2. North Carolina: 30-3 (13-3)
3. Clemson: 22-9 (10-6)
4. Miami (Fl.): 22-9 (9-7)
5. Virginia Tech: 19-13 (9-7)
6. Maryland: 20-13 (9-7)
7. Wake Forest: 19-12 (8-8)
8. Georgia Tech: 13-19 (6-10)
9. North Carolina State: 17-15 (5-11)
10. Boston College: 14-16 (5-11)
11. Florida State: 16-16 (5-11)
12. Virginia: 13-17 (3-13)
Big East
1. Georgetown: 26-6 (14-4)
2. Connecticut: 26-7 (14-4)
3. Louisville: 27-7 (14-4)
4. Notre Dame: 24-7 (14-4)
5. Marquette: 24-8 (12-6)
6. West Virginia: 22-10 (11-7)
7. Cincinnati: 15-16 (10-8)
8. Syracuse: 20-12 (10-8)
9. Pittsburgh: 21-11 (9-9)
10. Villanova: 19-13 (8-10)
11. Seton Hall: 17-15 (7-11)
12. DePaul: 10-21 (5-13)
13. St. John’s: 11-19 (5-13)
14. Providence: 14-16 (5-13)
15. South Florida: 12-19 (3-15)
16. Rutgers: 10-21 (2-16)
Big Ten
1. Wisconsin: 27-5 (16-2)
2. Indiana: 28-5 (15-3)
3. Purdue: 25-8 (15-3)
4. Michigan State: 26-8 (12-6)
5. Ohio State: 19-13 (10-8)
6. Minnesota: 19-13 (8-10)
7. Iowa: 13-19 (6-12)
8. Penn State: 14-17 (6-12)
9. Michigan: 11-21 (6-12)
10. Illinois: 13-20 (4-14)
11. Northwestern: 6-23 (0-16)
Big 12
1. Texas: 28-5 (14-2)
2. Kansas: 29-4 (12-4)
3. Kansas State: 19-11 (10-6)
4. Baylor: 20-10 (9-7)
5. Texas A&M: 23-9 (8-8)
6. Oklahoma: 22-12 (8-8)
7. Missouri: 17-15 (7-9)
8. Oklahoma State: 16-15 (7-9)
9. Nebraska: 18-12 (7-9)
10. Texas Tech: 16-15 (7-9)
11. Iowa State: 13-18 (4-12)
12. Colorado: 10-20 (3-13)
Pac-10
1. UCLA: 29-4 (15-3)
2. Stanford: 25-7 (13-5)
3. Washington State: 25-8 (11-7)
4. Arizona: 19-12 (10-8)
5. USC: 20-12 (10-8)
6. Arizona State: 19-12 (9-9)
7. Oregon: 19-13 (9-9)
8. California: 17-14 (7-11)
9. Washington: 15-17 (6-12)
10. Oregon State: 6-24 (0-18)
SEC
East
1. Tennessee: 30-3 (14-2)
2. Kentucky: 20-12 (12-4)
3. Vanderbilt: 28-6 (11-5)
4. Florida: 23-10 (9-7)
5. South Carolina: 15-17 (6-10)
6. Georgia: 13-16 (5-11)
West
1. Mississippi State: 21-11 (11-5)
2. Arkansas: 21-10 (10-6)
3. Mississippi: 21-11 (6-10)
4. LSU: 11-19 (5-11)
5. Auburn: 14-16 (4-12)
6. Alabama: 14-18 (3-13)
Atlantic-10
1. Xavier: 29-5 (14-2)
2. Saint Joseph’s: 23-9 (12-4)
3. Massachusetts: 22-10 (10-6)
4. La Salle: 14-16 (9-7)
5. Richmond: 16-14 (9-7)
6. Temple: 17-15 (9-7)
7. Rhode Island: 23-10 (8-8)
8. Charlotte: 18-14 (8-8)
9. Fordham: 13-15 (8-8)
10. Duquesne: 17-13 (7-9)
11. Saint Louis: 15-15 (7-9)
12. Dayton: 20-12 (6-10)
Missouri Valley
1. Drake: 26-4 (15-3)
2. Southern Illinois: 20-13 (12-6)
3. Illinois State: 21-10 (12-6)
4. Creighton: 20-10 (10-8)
Mountain West
1. BYU: 26-8 (13-3)
2. UNLV: 25-7 (12-4)
3. New Mexico: 26-7 (12-4)
4. San Diego State: 20-11 (10-6)
Conference-USA
1. Memphis: 33-1 (16-0)
2. Houston: 24-8 (12-4)
3. UAB: 23-11 (11-5)
Colonial
1. VCU: 26-6 (15-3)
2. George Mason: 23-10 (13-5)
Horizon
1. Butler: 29-3 (16-2)
2. Wright State: 21-10 (12-6)
3. Cleveland State: 18-12 (12-6)
Mid-American
1. Kent State: 29-5 (14-2)
2. Ohio: 23-10 (11-5)
3. Akron: 21-11 (10-6)
Sun Belt
1. South Alabama: 26-5 (16-2)
2. Western Kentucky: 24-7 (16-2)
West Coast
1. Gonzaga: 25-7 (13-1)
2. Saint Mary’s: 26-5 (12-2)
Note: Davidson (Southern) and Stephen F. Austin (Southland) will go undefeated the rest of the way in the regular season, and will also win their respective conference tournaments.
posted by Jeff at 11:12 PM
5 Comments:
so you think Seton Hall is going to lose to St. John's, Syracuse, and Rutgers to finish 7-11? Sorry, not happening.
The Hall will finish 10-8 or 9-9.
No -- as stated, I made this prior to last night's games.
I thought SHU would fall to South Florida, as well as STJ and Syracuse.
Sorry, didn't read that it was posted before the USF game. USF's win over Syracuse and close loss vs UConn were flukes.
I think the Hall will win it's final 3 games. The Syracuse game could go either way, but I think SH will win because they're home.
St. John's is terrible, that game should be no problem for SH.
Sorry, I didn't read
BTW, I started a SH blog a few weeks ago, what do you think of it?
http://piratehoops.wordpress.com/
Haha the A-10 is such a mess. I don't think Dayton will be on the bubble much longer.
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