Who's In, Who's Out?

After a week or so of conference tournaments and almost four days of major conference tourneys, the field of 65 is beginning to take shape. According to our calculations, the breakdown is as follows:

Locks (There is no way these teams don't make the NCAA Tournament):
ACC (6): North Carolina, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Duke, Boston College
Big East (6): Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Notre Dame, Marquette, Villanova
Big Ten (2): Ohio State, Wisconsin
Big 12 (3): Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas
Pac-10 (5): UCLA, Washington State, Oregon, USC, Arizona
SEC (4): Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky
Missouri Valley (2): Southern Illinois, Creighton
Mountain West (2): UNLV, BYU
Horizon (2): Butler, Wright State
Colonial (1): VCU
Atlantic-10 (1): George Washington/Rhode Island winner
WAC (2): Nevada, New Mexico State/Utah State winner

Automatic bids from one-bid leagues: 19

That adds up to 55 teams, leaving 10 spots still open.

Throw in Georgia Tech, Indiana, Michigan State, and Xavier, who are likely to get bids, and that leaves 6 spots left.

The teams fighting for those 6 spots, realistically, are:
Florida State
Syracuse
West Virginia
Texas Tech
Kansas State
Illinois
Purdue
Old Dominion
Drexel
Missouri State
Air Force
Stanford
Arkansas

Moreover, these 13 teams have to hope that North Carolina State (ACC) doesn’t win their conference tournament, taking away an available at-large berth. The Wolfpack aren’t getting a bid unless they win the automatic bid.