Bubble Watch

Note: I will have a complete Bubble Watch, with analysis and breakdowns of the bubble teams, beginning next week.

At times, it seems that there aren't enough spots in the NCAA Tournament to fit every deserving team. However, this season is the other way around. Every time I look, I see bubble teams losing games they should win or getting blown out in statement-making games. Right now, there are simply not enough teams that belong in the NCAA Tournament. Of course, there is still plenty of basketball left to play for teams to move in or out of at-large contention. According to the numbers, combining the locks with the automatic bids, there are 18 bids left over. However, throw in 8 teams that should be in right now, and one is left with 55 spots taken up. In other words, there are 10 bids still up for grabs, with 30 teams vying for them as of now.

Here is the breakdown:

Locks from the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, SEC, Missouri Valley, Mountain West: 24
Automatic bids from the other conferences (23): 23
47 Locks Overall

ACC (5): North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, Boston College, Virginia Tech
Big East (3): Pittsburgh, Marquette, Georgetown
Big Ten (3): Wisconsin, Ohio State, Indiana
Big Twelve (2): Texas A&M, Kansas
Pac-10 (5): UCLA, Washington State, Oregon, USC, Stanford
SEC (2): Florida, Kentucky
Missouri Valley (2): Southern Illinois, Creighton
Mountain West (2): Air Force, UNLV

One-Bid Conferences (23): America East, Atlantic-10, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial, Conference USA, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, Mid-Continent, MEAC, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, SWAC, Sun Belt, West Coast, WAC

Teams that need to keep winning to avoid the bubble (8):
Clemson
Florida State
Oklahoma State
BYU
Notre Dame
Arizona
Texas
BYU

Here are the teams that still have a chance to get an at-large bid (Note: Teams like Gonzaga, Davidson, Winthrop, VCU, and Massachusetts are not in this category, as they are the current leaders in their respective conferences):

Maryland: 17-7 (3-6), RPI: 37, SOS: 32, vs. Top 50: 3-6, Last 10: 5-5, Road/Neutral: 4-5
Georgia Tech: 15-8 (4-6), RPI: 46, SOS: 46, vs. Top 50: 5-6, Last 10: 5-5, R/N: 5-5
West Virginia: 17-5 (7-4), RPI: 46, SOS: 104, vs. Top 50: 1-4, Last 10: 6-4, R/N: 7-4
Villanova: 15-7 (4-5), RPI: 18, SOS: 6, vs. Top 50: 3-4, Last 10: 6-4, R/N: 8-4
Syracuse: 16-8 (5-5), RPI: 63, SOS: 41, vs. Top 50: 2-3, Last 10: 5-5, R/N: 3-4
Louisville: 15-8 (6-4), RPI: 73, SOS: 39, vs. Top 50: 1-6, Last 10: 6-4, R/N: 3-4
Providence: 15-7 (5-4), RPI: 48, SOS: 21, vs. Top 50: 2-4, Last 10: 6-4, R/N: 1-5
Michigan: 16-8 (4-5), RPI: 54, SOS: 50, vs. Top 50: 2-6, Last 10: 4-6, R/N: 2-6
Michigan State: 17-8 (4-6), RPI: 41, SOS: 36, vs. Top 50: 3-7, Last 10: 4-6, R/N: 3-7
Purdue: 16-8 (5-5), RPI: 38, SOS: 17, vs. Top 50: 3-4, Last 10: 5-5, R/N: 3-7
Illinois: 18-8 (6-5), RPI: 44, SOS: 25, vs. Top 50: 3-7, Last 10: 6-4, R/N: 6-5
Texas Tech: 15-9 (4-5), RPI: 43, SOS: 12, vs. Top 50: 4-4, Last 10: 5-5, R/N: 5-6
Kansas State: 17-7 (6-3), RPI: 39, SOS: 77, vs. Top 50: 1-4, Last 10: 7-3, R/N: 7-6
Missouri State: 17-7 (9-5), RPI: 34, SOS: 42, vs. Top 50: 3-4, Last 10: 6-4, R/N: 7-5
Northern Iowa: 15-8 (7-6), RPI: 64, SOS: 95, vs. Top 50: 3-2, Last 10: 4-6, R/N: 7-6
Wichita State: 14-9 (6-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 67, vs. Top 50: 2-5, Last 10: 5-5, R/N: 6-7
Bradley: 15-10 (7-7), RPI: 50, SOS: 20, vs. Top 50: 1-7, Last 10: 6-4, R/N: 5-8
Alabama: 18-5 (5-4), RPI: 28, SOS: 60, vs. Top 50: 1-4, Last 10: 6-4, R/N: 6-4
Georgia: 12-9 (5-5), RPI: 52, SOS: 10, vs. Top 50: 3-7, Last 10: 5-5, R/N: 3-6
Arkansas: 15-8 (4-5), RPI: 33, SOS: 9, vs. Top 50: 4-3, Last 10: 5-5, R/N: 4-6
Tennessee: 16-8 (4-5), RPI: 15, SOS: 5, vs. Top 50: 2-6, Last 10: 4-6, R/N: 4-8
Vanderbilt: 15-7 (6-3), RPI: 47, SOS: 48, vs. Top 50: 3-2, Last 10: 7-3, R/N: 4-5
Mississippi: 15-8 (4-5), RPI: 69, SOS: 94, vs. Top 50: 2-4, Last 10: 4-6, R/N: 4-7
Xavier: 17-7 (7-3), RPI: 40, SOS: 4-2, vs. Top 50: 4-2, Last 10: 7-3, R/N: 6-6
Old Dominion: 18-7 (11-3), RPI: 62, SOS: 116, vs. Top 50: 1-3, Last 10: 8-2, R/N: 6-5
Hofstra: 17-6 (11-2), RPI: 70, SOS: 176, vs. Top 50: 1-0, Last 10: 8-2, R/N: 9-6
Drexel: 16-6 (9-4), RPI: 55, SOS: 110, vs. Top 50: 1-1, Last 10: 6-4, R/N: 10-3
New Mexico State: 17-5 (8-2), RPI: 79, SOS: 223, vs. Top 50: 1-1, Last 10: 8-2, R/N: 5-5
Appalachian State: 15-6 (10-3), RPI: 51, SOS: 117, vs. Top 50: 3-2, Last 10: 7-3, R/N: 9-5