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Sunday, December 03, 2006

Notes and Observations, Volume Three

Here are a variety of thoughts and observations I have for all the latest happenings in college basketball:

- North Carolina State is playing better than expected, and could get a few surprising wins in the ACC. They handled Michigan easily after getting off to a slow start earlier in the week, and then lost a close one to Virginia on the road on Sunday. Gavin Grant is a tremendous all around player that can do a lot of things on the court. Brandon Costner and Ben McCauley are very solid down low, and once the Wolfpack get Engin Atsur healthy, they could be a good team down the road.

- Michigan looks like the same team they have been the past few years--capable of making the NCAA Tournament but seemingly a bubble team for the entire season. Dion Harris is not a true point guard, but he is solid. He needs to look for his teammates more than he does his own shot, though. Courtney Sims needs more touches down low--he is a potentially dominating player.

- Georgetown had been looking better after their struggles earlier in the season, but then looked unimpressive against Duke on Saturday. Jeff Green has not become the go-to-guy that he needs to be, while Roy Hibbert is not dominating on the boards like he should be. To make matters worse, their perimeter is still not producing enough. They could be a middle-of-the-pack Big East team.

- Rodney Stuckey of Eastern Washington keeps filling it up every night, putting up 27.1 points per game. While he tends to turn the ball over too much, he can lead EWU to an upset victory sometime this season due to his scoring prowess.

- Stefon Hannah has been very impressive for Missouri. The junior point guard is a very good passer who can score as well. Moreover, he does not turn the ball over very much--aside from his 8 turnovers against Arkansas. In that game against the Razorbacks, though, Hannah had 21 points, 3 rebounds, 6 assists, and 6 steals. His Missouri Tigers have the look of an NCAA Tournament team after their 9-0 start. They have had only 2 games in which they won by less than 19 points.

- Notre Dame has played a lot better after their early-season loss to Butler. The Irish went on the road to Maryland and defeated the Terrapins on Sunday by seven. Rob Kurz is becoming a legit big man in the Big East, averaging about 15 points and 8 rebounds a night. Russell Carter leads a solid perimeter group that can score.

- Drexel might not be ready to be the favorite in the CAA, but they will be very tough to beat at home. They have solid wins over Toledo and St. Joseph's while playing at home. On the road, however, is a different story. They were blown out at Penn, and also have a loss at Rider. Dominick Mejia's scoring is down, while Chaz Crawford needs to become a better offensive option.

- South Florida are undefeated, and despite struggling with Stetson at home, the Bulls could be 9-0 before they lose. They face East Carolina on the road before then, but it could be another two weeks before USF loses. Interesting start for what is likely one of the worst major-conference teams in the country.

- Temple had an erratic week. They fell to Buffalo, one of the worst teams in the MAC, at home on Monday, but rebounded to dominate Big West favorite Long Beach State this weekend.

- Texas A&M might have the best defense in the country. They are giving up less than 49 points per game, and hadn't allowed more than 60 points in a game until Pacific put up 62 this weekend. After Kansas' inconsistent play, the Aggies could be the new favorites in the Big 12.

- One could see Marquette's upset loss at home to North Dakota State coming. They struggled against several inferior teams, including Valparaiso, Idaho State, and Hillsdale. Dominic James had to constantly bail them out (he scored their final 18 points vs. Valpo) but shot only 3 for 11 against NDSU, finishing with 9 points. They could get exposed in Big East play if they don't develop consistency. This is the second year in a row that North Dakota State has defeated a ranked team from Wisconsin on the road--defeating the Badgers a season ago.

- Is Wichita State a top ten team? They sure have played like one, defeating George Mason, LSU, and Syracuse on the road in consecutive weeks. They could have the best chance of any team outside the "Big Six" conferences to make a run at the Final Four. Kyle Wilson, P.J. Couisnard, and Ryan Martin are all good inside-outside players who create match-up problems, while Sean Ogirri can shoot the ball from anywhere.

- Syracuse will be better come conference play, but they need to develop some sort of consistency. They were outrebounded by Canisius and Holy Cross. Then, they dominated the paint against Wichita State, but got a combined 4 for 20 shooting from wings Eric Devendorf and Demetris Nichols.

- Someone tell Winthrop to let Phillip Wiliams play 30 minutes a game. He has had at least 20 points and 10 rebounds in both games that he played 30 minutes. However, Williams hasn't reached double-figures in either category in any other game.

- Dayton could be a potential contender in the Atlantic-10. They upset Louisville last week, and also handily defeated a solid Holy Cross team this weekend. Brian Roberts is an outstanding guard who could carry the Flyers.


- After struggling earlier this season, Boston College has bounced back and are playing much better lately. They defeated Michigan State at home, and then went to Massachusetts and beat the Minutemen by double-figures. Jared Dudley can do everything, while Tyrese Rice and Sean Marshall are solid on the perimeter. Sean Williams is becoming a beast in the paint.

- Speaking of UMass, the Minutemen need more consistent perimeter production if they are to contend with Xavier in the A-10. The wing duo of Gary Forbes and James Life shot only 7 for 27 against BC.

- Clemson is looking better and better this season. They had wins over Old Dominion and Mississippi State coming into the week, then went on the road to Minnesota and South Carolina and won both games by a combined 43 points. Look out for this team in the ACC.

- North Carolina needs to work on their interior defense and rebounding if they are going to win the ACC. They can score on anyone, but they were outrebounded by Kentucky and allowed Randolph Morris to shoot 10 for 11 from the field. Additionally, Tyler Hansbrough has struggled this season against quality big men. He failed to reach double-figures against both Morris and Josh Heytvelt of Gonzaga. On the bright side, UNC has all the ingredients to make a deep run in March--especially on the offensive end.

- Look out for the Ohio State hype train to pick up even more steam with the debut of Greg Oden. The hyped (and that's an understatement) freshman played against Valparaiso on Saturday, scoring 14 points, grabbing 10 boards, and blocking 5 shots in only 23 minutes. Once he becomes fully healthy and takes more than 5 shots, Oden--and OSU--will reach their full potential. By the way, Oden went to the free-throw line 15 times, but only made 8.

- After getting blown out by every good team they've played, Florida State needed a win against Florida to keep their potential at-large resume looking attractive. Well, they got it on Sunday. The Seminoles defeated the Gators and were in control the whole game. Al Thornton was outstanding. He carried FSU for much of the game. Granted, Corey Brewer was out, Joakim Noah wasn't healthy, and the game was in Tallahassee, but this was a game FSU needed and they got it. For Florida, Al Horford needs to return to the form he was at last year. He seems to be in foul trouble every game.

- Georgia Tech looks like they are going to be inconsistent throughout the season. They looked terrific in the second half against Memphis, got blown out by UCLA, struggled against Penn State, and then went to Miami and lost in their ACC opener on Sunday. One has to expect that from a team relying heavily on freshmen, but they can't play like this throughout the ACC season. Thaddeus Young can't put up two-point performances like he did against the Hurricanes, though.

- It will be interesting to see if Northern Arizona's tough non-conference schedule helps them come Big Sky league play. The Lumberjacks have faced Kansas, Arizona, Arizona State, and also played UNLV this weekend. NAU did beat Arizona State, but lost the other three games by an average of 32 points per game.

- Before we move on, it's necessary to show some love to Division-III Lincoln University. They scored 201 points on Saturday against Ohio State-Marion, setting an D-III record. Their margin of victory of 123 was also an NCAA record, as was their 104 points in a half, 78 shots made, and 141 shots taken. Sam Wylie made a D-III record 21 three-pointers, scoring 69 points--in only 24 minutes.

- George Mason is not nearly as good as they were last year. They have not defeated a good team yet--losing to Creighton, Wichita State, and Bucknell. They will improve as the season went on, but they are not one of the three or four best teams in the CAA right now.

- I said it in my weekend preview on Friday, but VCU validated the fact that they could be a sleeper in the CAA this season with their 102-84 victory over Houston on Saturday. Eric Maynor and B.A. Walker form an excellent backcourt. The Rams are a three-point loss to Xavier and a one-point loss at Toledo from being undefeated.

- If Wisconsin is going to win the Big Ten, they need some scorers. Alando Tucker is a machine and will get his no matter what, but other than Kammron Taylor, the Badgers don't have anyone else averaging double figures. If they find some secondary options, Wisconsin will be that much better.

- The Big Ten might be the worst major conference in the country. Other than Wisconsin and Ohio State, there's not an overly impressive team in the conference. Illinois lost to Arizona and Maryland (albeit without Brian Randle for both, and Jamar Smith for the 'Zona game); Michigan looked awful against North Carolina State; Indiana has struggled all season; and no one else seems definitely NCAA-bound. Michigan State and Purdue might be the third and fourth best teams in the conference right now.

- Who are the only two undefeated teams in Conference-USA? Southern Miss and UCF. While the best win between the two teams is over Sam Houston State (by Southern Miss), the combined 11-0 start is surprising nonetheless, given the popular idea that C-USA is a Memphis and nothing league.

- Kansas needs to develop some consistency. They looked great against Florida, but then go on the road against 2-4 DePaul and blow a late lead, falling to the Blue Demons by 7. They were outscored by 16 in the second half, getting outrebounded and also only receiving 3 points from Brandon Rush.

- Could DePaul be turning things around? They had a ten-day layoff between the Kansas game and their previous game, and looked like they figured some things out during that week and a half break. Sammy Mejia and Wilson Chandler form a nice duo.

- This might be the only time you will ever see one say this, but Connecticut is flying under the radar right now. The Huskies improved to 7-0 after their 51-point drubbing of Texas Southern. UConn has not really played anyone that is a Top 25 contender, but they did defeat Albany and Ole Miss by a combined 49 points. They are outscoring opponents by more than 29 points per game. Jerome Dyson and A.J. Price are an outstanding backcourt.

- Look out for Providence in the Big East this season. They lost a home game to Brown earlier this year, but have been destroying teams lately, including wins over Boston College, George Washington, and in-state rival Rhode Island. Sharaud Curry is a big-time point guard, while Geoff McDermott is averaging a double-double from the small forward position. Once Randall Hanke comes back (if he does), the Friars will be a tough team to beat at home.

- Don't overlook Loyola (Chicago) in the Horizon title race this season. Although Butler has been extremely impressive so far this season, the Ramblers are playing very well, with only a three-point loss to Saint Louis and a defeat to Ohio State marring their record. Blake Schilb might be the best player in the league.

- Is the Missouri Valley bound for another five or six bids this season? Wichita State, Southern Illinois, and Missouri State look like three of the twenty best teams in the country this season, while Creighton and Northern Iowa are playing very well. Bradley also has a win over DePaul, while Illinois State owns a victory over St. John's.

- Oklahoma State is another undefeated team flying under the radar right now. They own a win over Missouri State and are 9-0. Mario Boggan is dominating on the interior, while JamesOn Curry is playing like he did two years ago on the perimeter.

- Western Michigan could be a factor in the MAC race. Led by Joe Reitz, the Broncos have wins over Virginia Tech and San Diego State so far this season.

- New Mexico looked like an NCAA Tournament team in their first five contests--all at home. However, in their first game on the road, against UTEP, the Lobos lost by 24. New Mexico needs to play better defense, and they also need to find an inside option on the offensive end. Aaron Johnson, who was averaging 8 points and 12 rebounds per game, was held to one point and four rebounds against the Miners.

- There's only one team in the Ohio Valley Conference, the SWAC, and the MEAC with an above-.500 record, while the America East does not have a single team that is above-.500. That could hurt their respective RPIs (and Big Dance seedings) come March.

- Nevada is looking like they could be playing in the second weekend come March. They improved to 7-0 with a very impressive win over California on Sunday, led by Nick Fazekas' 12 points and 16 rebounds and Marcelus Kemp's 20 points. Point guard Ramon Sessions is the key to this team. When he performs like he did Sunday (19 points, 4 boards, 6 assists, 2 steals), the Wolf Pack are tough to beat.

- Don't count Fresno State out of the WAC race. They have five guys averaging in double-figures and have several players capable of creating match-up problems, including Quinton Hosley and Dominic McGuire.

- USC, after losing their opener to South Carolina, have looked more impressive with every victory. Their latest win was a 17-point defeat of Loyola Marymount. Once the Trojans get Gabe Pruitt eligible at the end of the first semester, look out.

- Quincy Pondexter might be the most overlooked freshman in the country. He is overshadowed by teammate Spencer Hawes, but the 6-7 forward is extremely athletic and provides the Huskies with a scoring wing that loved to play in the open-court.

- Oregon is a different team than they were the past couple of years. They still have loads of talent, but now are winning important games with that talent. The Ducks went into Georgetown and defeated the Hoyas by seven, holding 7-2 Roy Hibbert to 4 points and 3 rebounds, while Jeff Green only had 5 points. The deep Oregon perimeter provides plenty of scoring for the Ducks.

- Mustafa Shakur is finally playing up to the expectations he had coming out of high school. He is second in the country in assists and is sporting an impressive 2.6 to 1 assist to turnover ratio. Shakur also played all 40 minutes in their comeback win over Illinois. If he continues his stellar play, the Wildcats will be tough to match on the offensive end.

- Kentucky could be a very good team this year. Randolph Morris dominates down low, and Joe Crawford and Ramel Bradley give the Wildcats solid perimeter players. They can control the tempo, as evidenced by the North Carolina game, and have some developing freshmen in Jodie Meeks, Perry Stevenson, and Derrick Jasper. If they can shoot the three more efficiently and turn the ball over less, the Wildcats will be solid.

- Aside from the fact that Caleb Green is one of the best players in the country, averaging about 20 points and 10 rebounds a game, not to mention two steals and two assists per contest, he is also one of college basketball's "iron men." The 6-8 big man has played at least 38 minutes in four of Oral Roberts' five games this season, including all 40 minutes in their two-point loss to Akron. Additionally, he fouled out in two of the games, meaning that coach Scott Sutton keeps him in no matter what--the complete opposite of what the majority of D-1 coaches do.

- LSU has struggled this season. They lost to Wichita State at home, and only beat Tulane by seven this weekend. Glen Davis is dominating the interior, but the Tigers need a point guard. Tack Minor and Ben Voogd are not playing well there, and Garrett Temple is better suited for the wing. They miss Darrell Mitchell in the backcourt.

- With Florida and LSU struggling, Alabama is the lone undefeated team left in the SEC. The Crimson Tide are playing well lately, and do not seem like they have reached their full potential. Jermareo Davidson is looking like an All-American down low, while Ronald Steele and Richard Hendrix are playing well. More importantly, Alonzo Gee and Mykal Riley are providing the Tide with consistent wing scoring.

- The most interesting team in Ken Pomeroy's Pythagorean Top 10? Georgia. However, looking at the Bulldogs, one shouldn't be too surprised. UGA is 5-1, with their lone loss a three-point defeat to Western Kentucky. They are coming off of a one-point road win over Wake Forest and are looking good. Mike Mercer is looking very impressive in the backcourt, while JC transfer Takais Brown is providing inside balance the Bulldogs.

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