Weekend Preview

With the calendar turning to March on Sunday, it’s time to start counting down to Selection Sunday (if you haven’t already). With that in mind, time is running out for bubble teams to make a statement to the committee. Many of the teams on the fence go up against a top team with a chance to pick up a marquee win, while other bubble teams need to just continue winning and avoiding bad losses. On top of that, there are a handful of match-ups between championship contenders. Conference tournaments in many leagues tip-off next week, so the next couple of days will be great hors d'oeuvres for the greatest month of the year.

Top Games

Clemson at Florida State (Saturday, 2:00 PM, ESPN FullCourt/Regional TV): Florida State could use a win to solidify its NCAA hopes, while Clemson needs to bounce back after its home loss to Virginia Tech. Prediction: Florida State 73, Clemson 67

Duke at Virginia Tech (Saturday, 3:30 PM, ABC): Can Virginia Tech pull off its second straight upset? The Hokies beat Clemson on the road on Wednesday, while Duke is hitting its stride again. Prediction: Virginia Tech 77, Duke 73

Ohio State at Purdue (Saturday, 4:00 PM, ESPN): Battle in the Big Ten. Purdue fell on the road to Michigan on Thursday, while Ohio State beat Penn State Tuesday, but needs another win or two for its at-large profile. Prediction: Purdue 65, Ohio State 56

Utah at BYU (Saturday, 5:00 PM, CBS College Sports): Utah likely locked up a spot in the Dance with its win over UNLV this week, but BYU is still on the bubble. The Cougars could make a serious move with a win here. Prediction: BYU 75, Utah 69

UCLA at California (Saturday, 9:00 PM, ESPN): Intrastate rivalry in the Pac-10, with both teams having surprisingly similar profiles. UCLA is still without a marquee road win, while Cal could improve its seeding and lock up a bid. Prediction: California 72, UCLA 68

Marquette at Louisville (Sunday, 12:00 PM, CBS): Two of the best in the Big East -- when healthy. Unfortunately, Marquette will be shorthanded the rest of the season, as Dominic James is gone for the year with a broken ankle. Prediction: Louisville 74, Marquette 66

Missouri at Kansas (Sunday, 2:00 PM, CBS): Potential battle for the top spot in the Big 12. Kansas is in first place right now, after winning at Oklahoma on Monday. Missouri won the first meeting between the two on a Zaire Taylor shot with time winding down. Prediction: Kansas 84, Missouri 77

Michigan State at Illinois (Sunday, 4:00 PM, CBS): Michigan State is clearly the best team in the Big Ten, but the Spartans look terrible at times. A win on the road here would get them back on the right track. Illinois will try to improve its seeding. Prediction: Michigan State 66, Illinois 63

Bubble Battles

Notre Dame at Connecticut (Saturday, 2:00 PM, CBS): Connecticut still needs to keep winning to keep its hold on a No. 1 seed, while Notre Dame keeps its at-large hopes alive with a win. Prediction: Connecticut 84, Notre Dame 69

Arizona at Washington (Saturday, 3:00 PM, FSN): Arizona has fallen back a bit after dropping two in a row on the road, while Washington can wrap up the Pac-10 title with a victory. Prediction: Washington 74, Arizona 67

LSU at Kentucky (Saturday, 4:00 PM, CBS): LSU continues to rise in projected bracket as it has dominated the SEC. Kentucky needs a win over the Tigers to stay in the field. Prediction: LSU 70, Kentucky 68

Temple at Dayton (Saturday, 4:00 PM, Regional TV): Battle in the Atlantic-10 between two teams in need of a win. Temple lost at La Salle to hurt its at-large chances, while Dayton fell at Rhode Island. Prediction: Dayton 77, Temple 70

Texas at Oklahoma State (Saturday, 6:00 PM, ESPN): Very interesting Big 12 contest. Texas would lock up a bid with a win here, while Ok State would likely be one of the last teams in with a victory. Prediction: Oklahoma State 73, Texas 65

Nebraska at Kansas State (Saturday, 8:00 PM, ESPN FullCourt/Regional TV): Huge bubble game in the Big 12. Nebraska has almost fallen out of the picture, while KSU needs a win. Prediction: Kansas State 69, Nebraska 61

Michigan at Wisconsin (Sunday, 1:00 PM, Big Ten Network): Wisconsin has had an impressive turnaround this season, while Michigan may have salvaged its season with its win over Purdue on Thursday. Prediction: Wisconsin 63, Michigan 54

Tennessee at Florida (Sunday, 2:00 PM, CBS): SEC East rivalry game that has added bubble meaning this year. Tennessee has faded over the past few weeks, while Florida needs a win to stay in the field. Prediction: Florida 79, Tennessee 74

Cincinnati at Syracuse (Sunday, 2:00 PM, ESPN FullCourt/Regional TV): A win here would make Syracuse a lock for the Tournament, and Cincinnati would be in good shape with a win after beating West Virginia Thursday. Prediction: Syracuse 72, Cincinnati 66

Must-Wins for Bubble Teams

Georgetown at Villanova (Saturday, 12:00 PM, ESPN): Last stand for Georgetown. A loss here and the Hoyas are going to a three-letter tournament. Prediction: Villanova 76, Georgetown 65

Iowa State at Texas A&M (Saturday, 1:30 PM, ESPN FullCourt/Regional TV): The Aggies have played well lately, and have an increasingly impressive resume. Prediction: Texas A&M 71, Iowa State 57

Arizona State at Washington State (Saturday, 5:00 PM, FSN Regional): If Washington State were to win here, then beat Washington next week, the Cougars might be in the hunt. Prediction: Arizona State 63, Washington State 60

Indiana at Penn State (Saturday, 6:00 PM, Big Ten Network): Penn State fell at Ohio State during the week, but a win here would get the Nittany Lions on the right track. Prediction: Penn State 67, Indiana 52

UAB at East Carolina (Saturday, 7:00 PM): The Blazers' at-large chances are pretty much done after their loss to Memphis, but if they win out and get to the C-USA title game, they may have a shot. Prediction: UAB 82, East Carolina 65

USC at Stanford (Saturday, 8:00 PM): The Trojans are in serious bubble trouble after losing at California on Thursday. A loss here and they have to win the Pac-10 Tournament. Prediction: USC 69, Stanford 64

San Diego State at TCU (Saturday, 8:30 PM, Mountain TV): The Aztecs have fallen out of the field with their recent struggles, including a home loss to BYU this week. Prediction: San Diego State 68, TCU 60

South Carolina at Vanderbilt (Saturday, 9:00 PM, ESPNU): The Gamecocks are looking like the best team in the SEC East right now, and a win here would put them in position for a bid. Prediction: South Carolina 74, Vanderbilt 70

New Mexico at Colorado State (Saturday, 9:00 PM): Can the Lobos make a run at an at-large bid? They are playing solid basketball lately and have a chance to finish in second. Prediction: New Mexico 73, Colorado State 61

Providence at Rutgers (Sunday, 2:00 PM, ESPNU): The Friars can't follow their win over Pittsburgh with a dud at the Scarlet Knights. They need a convincing performance. Prediction: Providence 81, Rutgers 66

Rhode Island at Duquesne (Sunday, 3:30 PM): The Rams make their way onto the bubble after their win over Dayton on Wednesday. Duquesne has been solid in the A-10. Prediction: Duquesne 87, Rhode Island 83

Maryland at North Carolina State (Sunday, 7:30 PM, FSN): The Terrapins couldn't pull off the upset combo, losing to Duke on Wednesday. They need a win here to bounce back, though. Prediction: North Carolina State 71, Maryland 66

Non-BCS Games to Watch

Georgia Southern at Davidson (Saturday, 2:00 PM): The Wildcats can't afford any more losses in Southern Conference play -- and might need the automatic bid. Prediction: Davidson 90, Georgia Southern 65

Illinois State at Creighton (Saturday, 2:05 PM, ESPN2): With a win here, Creighton would tie for the Missouri Valley title -- and possibly get itself in the mix for an at-large bid. Prediction: Creighton 73, Illinois State 64

Georgia State at VCU (Saturday, 4:00 PM, Comcast Network): The Rams could win the CAA title outright if they knock off GSU, who blew out Hofstra this week. Prediction: VCU 76, Georgia State 63

Jacksonville at Belmont (Saturday, 5:15 PM): First place in the Atlantic Sun is on the line, as the two teams tied for first square off. Jacksonville has lost four of eight, while Belmont has won four of five. Prediction: Belmont 79, Jacksonville 74

Morehead State at Tennessee-Martin (Saturday, 7:00 PM): The Ohio Valley title is up for grabs. UT-Martin has a one-game lead on MSU, but lost the first meeting by nine on the road. Prediction: Tennessee-Martin 83, Morehead State 73

Stephen F. Austin at Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (Saturday, 8:00 PM): Two of the best teams in the Southland battle. SFA leads its division, while Corpus Christi is one game out in the West. Prediction: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 61, Stephen F. Austin 57

North Dakota State at Oral Roberts (Saturday, 8:05 PM, ESPN FullCourt/Regional TV): The top teams in the Summit face off for first-place. NDSU won the first meeting by eight, but that was nearly three months ago. Prediction: Oral Roberts 76, North Dakota State 74

Evansville at Northern Iowa (Saturday, 8:30 PM, Regional TV): UNI needs a victory if it wants a share of the Missouri Valley title. The Panthers are struggling, dropping four of their last six. Prediction: Northern Iowa 66, Evansville 57

Utah State at Nevada (Saturday, 10:05 PM): The Aggies are going to win the WAC easily, but they can't afford many more losses if they are going to be in the mix for an at-large bid in case of a conference tourney loss. Prediction: Utah State 68, Nevada 63

Siena at Canisius (Sunday, 2:00 PM): The Saints have been running over the MAAC the past couple of months, and have put themselves in position for a bid no matter the outcome of the conference tournament. They can't lose here, though. Prediction: Siena 81, Canisius 61

Thursday, February 26 Predictions

Prediction Record: 291-136 (ATS: 212-189-12)

West Virginia at Cincinnati (+5): Prediction: Cincinnati 71, West Virginia 67
Minnesota at Illinois (-7.5): Prediction: Illinois 60, Minnesota 51
Memphis at UAB (+4): Prediction: Memphis 83, UAB 78
Purdue at Michigan (+2.5): Prediction: Purdue 62, Michigan 57
USC at California (-4): Prediction: California 67, USC 61
Arizona State at Washington (-3.5): Prediction: Washington 77, Arizona State 72

Bubble Watch

AS OF FEBRUARY 26, 2009

Bubble Breakdown and Comparison

Welcome back to the Bubble Watch. As we stated a couple of weeks ago, it will look at every team in the at-large mix hoping to grab one of the last spots for the NCAA Tournament. As the season enters its final two and a half weeks, the at-large picture is becoming slightly more clear – albeit very, very slightly. Teams are actually playing themselves into the Big Dance, while others are doing their best to avoid hearing their name called on Selection Sunday. Still, there are plenty of teams with a shot at getting one of the last few at-large invitations to the field. There is a lot of basketball left to played, though. According to the numbers, there are 12 bids still up for grabs, with 27 teams vying for them:

Locks: 24
Automatic bids from the other conferences: 20
44 Locks Overall

ACC (4): North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest
Big East (5): Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette
Big Ten (3): Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois
Big 12 (3): Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri
Pac-10 (3): Washington, Arizona State, UCLA
SEC (1): LSU
Atlantic-10 (1): Xavier
Conference-USA (1): Memphis
Horizon (1): Butler
Mountain West (1): Utah
West Coast (1): Gonzaga

One-Bid Conferences (21): America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial, Ivy, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Missouri Valley, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sun Belt, SWAC, WAC

Teams that need to keep winning to avoid the bubble – these bids are not up for grabs yet (9): Florida State, Boston College**, West Virginia, Syracuse, Ohio State, Minnesota**, Texas, California, Arizona**

** In the most precarious position of the group

Note: Utah State, Davidson and Siena are not included, as they are the current leaders in their respective conferences

RANKINGS OF BUBBLE TEAMS
1. Tennessee
2. South Carolina
3. Wisconsin
4. Dayton
5. Kentucky
6. UNLV
7. BYU
8. Florida
9. Saint Mary's
10. Temple
11. Penn State
12. Providence
13. Virginia Tech
14. Maryland
15. Oklahoma State
16. Cincinnati
17. UAB
18. Creighton
19. Miami (Fl.)
20. USC
21. San Diego State
22. Texas A&M
23. Kansas State
24. Michigan
25. Notre Dame
26. Rhode Island
27. New Mexico

Articles at CHN, NBE Basketball

While March Madness All Season gets most of his original material and articles, Jeff Borzello does contribute at several other websites, including Collegehoops.net and NBE Basketball Report. Here is a look at some of his articles from the past few days:

"Big East Dance Card": A look at the postseason picture for the Big East Conference. I go through the top 11 teams in the league, assessing their current NCAA Tournament status and what they have to do to either improve their seed, or get to the Big Dance altogether.

"CHN GameNight: Louisville at Georgetown": A preview of one of the many bubble games of this week, basically a must-win for Georgetown. Includes a look at both teams, as well as a breakdown of the keys to the game.

"CHN GameNight: Duke at Maryland": A preview of what turned out to be a very exciting battle in the ACC. The prediction on the game was wrong, but it includes analysis and team breakdowns.

Also, two more links of note:

A writer for the Pitt News, the student newspaper at Pittsburgh University, contacted me and interviewed me for a story he was writing on the NBA futures of three Panthers players. Here is the story: "Three Pitt Players Making Case for Pros"

And I keep forgetting to mention how March Madness All Season was named one of the top 100 college sports blogs back in November, by the website, Learning XL. Here is a link: Top 100 College Sports Blogs

James Out for Season

After Marquette's loss to No. 2 Connecticut, head coach Buzz Williams announced that Dominic James will have surgery on his foot and will miss the rest of the season. The senior point guard broke the fifth metatarsal bone in his left foot during the game, playing just four minutes before leaving.

Without James, Marquette will have to rely on former Ball State transfer Maurice Acker, as well as three-point specialist David Cubillan. James, arguably the best defensive point guard in the Big East, was averaging 11.7 points, 3.6 rebounds, 5.3 assists and 2.3 steals per game this season.

Wednesday, February 25 Predictions

Prediction Record: 287-133 (ATS: 207-187-12)

Kentucky at South Carolina: Prediction: South Carolina 71, Kentucky 65
Dayton at Rhode Island: Prediction: Rhode Island 74, Dayton 68
Connecticut at Marquette: Prediction: Marquette 73, Connecticut 70
Virginia Tech at Clemson: Prediction: Clemson 79, Virginia Tech 69
Duke at Maryland: Prediction: Maryland 87, Duke 84
Kansas State at Missouri: Prediction: Missouri 81, Kansas State 67
UNLV at Utah: Prediction: Utah 69, UNLV 63

A Bubble Team's Worst Nightmare

It happens every year. A major conference team comes out of nowhere in their conference tournament to make it to the championship and, in some cases, win the title. It also happens in some mid-major conferences that were expected to get one bid but then send two dancing because of upsets in the league tournaments.

The aforementioned situation is a nightmare for bubble teams hoping to get bids to the NCAA Tournament. When teams that are locks for the NCAA Tournament lose in their respective conference tournament and a mediocre team that gets hot at the right team either makes the championship or wins the automatic bid, teams on the fence become some of the most nervous people in the world. You hear the announcers every March:

"Well, [fill in bubble team of choice] has to root for [fill in league favorite] if they want a bid to the NCAA Tournament. If [fill in upstart team] pulls off yet another upset, it means that there is one fewer at-large bid for the bubble teams."

This year is not going to be any different. With all of the parity in many of the leagues across the country this season, there are several teams that could make Cinderella runs in their respective conference tournaments. In some leagues, these teams are in the lower half of the league and win an early game before getting on a run, and all of a sudden they look like the second coming of the UNLV teams from the early '90s. In other conferences, these Cinderella teams are just ones that have a decent chance to upset the heavy favorite and steal the automatic bid.

Who are the main candidates to pull a Georgia and make this kind of run in Championship Week 2009? Let's take a look at several conferences from around the country, and find teams that have the ability to win a few games in early March.

ACC
North Carolina State: With five teams looking like locks to go to the Dance, and four teams on the bubble, North Carolina State certainly looks like the best of the rest. The Wolfpack have knocked off Wake Forest and Miami (Fl.) in conference play this season, and played some other teams very close. Brandon Costner is difficult to defend and Ben McCauley has bounced back after a down year. Courtney Fells is the most potent scorer in the backcourt. NC State can shoot the ball, both inside and outside the arc, and it also offensive rebounds at a high rate. They also slow the pace of the game down and force teams into tough shots.

Big East
Seton Hall: It would be a cop out to pick one of the top 11 teams in the conference, since they are all in the mix for an NCAA Tournament bid. Obviously, Georgetown is a huge threat since the Hoyas are all but out of the at-large picture. However, to go with a true sleeper, I’m going to take a look at Seton Hall. The Pirates has wins over USC, Virginia Tech and Georgetown thus far and they have hung with some top Big East teams. Jeremy Hazell can flat-out score, while Eugene Harvey is quick and can get to the basket. Robert Mitchell creates match-up problems, and John Garcia has shown flashes down low. SHU can’t play defense, but it can score with anyone in the conference.

Big Ten
Michigan: After the Wolverines’ loss to Iowa in overtime, their at-large chances are pretty much done. However, don’t overlook them making a run in the conference tournament. They obviously have the talent to beat the top teams, as evidenced by wins over Duke, UCLA and Illinois. Sure, they are only 4-8 in their last 12, but they can turn it around. Manny Harris is one of the best players in the conference, and DeShawn Sims has developed into a go-to-guy down low. Surrounding those two are plenty of capable role players. Michigan takes care of the ball and defends the three-point line very well. If they get hot from deep, look out.

Big 12
Baylor: The Bears’ dropped yet another game last night, getting beat handily at Iowa State. At 4-9 in the Big 12, Baylor is no longer even on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament. This team has plenty of offensive talent, though – talent that can get hot and stay hot. Curtis Jerrells is a dynamic point guard who is tough to stay in front of, while Henry Dugat, Tweety Carter and LaceDarius Dunn are all double-figure scorers on the perimeter that can shoot it. Kevin Rogers is a solid performer up front. The Bears are the worst defensive team in the Big 12, but they can score in a hurry. With all the talent they possess, it’s not hard to envision a couple of wins.

Pac-10
Washington State: If you weren’t a believer in the Cougars being a potential threat in a couple of weeks at the conference tournament, Saturday should have changed your mind. Washington State went into UCLA and beat the Bruins – while scoring a season-high 82 points in the process. WSU had already beaten Arizona State this season. Taylor Rochestie can do-it-all at the point guard spot, and Klay Thompson is a stud freshman. Aron Baynes provides a consistent player down low. With the outstanding defense this team plays every night, and the slow-down pace they utilize, they can frustrate teams and pull multiple upsets.

SEC
Auburn: Outside of LSU, no one in the SEC has shown they can be considered a favorite heading into the conference tournament. That could open the door for a surprise team to make a run, namely Auburn. The Tigers have won four of their last five, including a win over Tennessee. They are very solid defensively, forcing plenty of turnovers and defending the three-point line. Offensively, they have a variety of options. DeWayne Reed and Quantez Robertson give them a very solid backcourt that can handle, distribute and score. Tay Waller is a very good shooter and Rasheem Barrett can score. Plus, Korvotney Barber is one of the best big men in the league. Don’t sleep on this Auburn team.

Atlantic-10
Rhode Island: Xavier will be the favorite, with Dayton and Temple fighting for at-large bids. However, one team that has flown under the radar is Rhode Island. The Rams are just a game out of first place and have won eight of their last nine. Seven of their eight losses this season were by single-digits. Offensively, this team can do it all: shoot the three, score around the rim, get baskets in transition, offensive rebound, etc. Jimmy Baron is an outstanding three-point shooter, while Keith Cothran can also score. Marquis Jones is a solid point guard. Up front, Kaheim Seawright and Delroy James form a very good one-two punch.

Conference-USA
Houston: This team is more than likely going to be a one-bid league, unless UAB can upset Memphis tomorrow and sneak in as an at-large. However, provided Memphis is the lone lock, Houston can scare a few bubble teams with a run in the tourney. The Cougars love to push the ball offensively and score in transition. They take outstanding care of the ball, though. Defensively, they are solid, forcing teams into tough shots in the half-court. Aubrey Coleman (yes, the head-stomper) is one of the best player in the league, and Kelvin Lewis can also fill it up. Marcus Cousin is a double-double threat down low, while Qa’rraan Calhoun is versatile.

Mountain West
Wyoming: The Mountain West is going to be one of the most exciting conference tournaments in the country. Outside of Utah, there are no other sure things. Four other teams will be fighting for at-large spots, including host UNLV, BYU, New Mexico and San Diego State. Therefore, that leaves just four potential sleepers. Out of that batch, it’s tough to ignore Wyoming – mainly because of its scoring prowess. Four players average at least 14 points per game, led by guard Brandon Ewing, one of the best non-BCS players in the country. Former Wichita State transfer Sean Ogirri can really shoot it, and Afam Muojeke is tough to guard. Tyson Johnson provides good production down low.

West Coast
Santa Clara: Gonzaga will go into the tournament as the prohibitive favorite, with Saint Mary’s playing for an at-large bid, hopefully with a healthy Patty Mills. Although one of those two will very likely win it, Santa Clara could throw a scare into them. Why? One reason: John Bryant. One of the most productive players in America, Bryant can put up a 20-20 and lead this team to a win. Plus, Kevin Foster and James Rahon are double-figure scorers who can shoot the ball and provide balance. The Broncos have won seven of their last nine, and five of their six league losses have come by a combined 14 points.

Other Teams to Keep an Eye On: Cleveland State (Horizon); Illinois State (Missouri Valley); Niagara (MAAC); The Citadel (Southern); Nevada (WAC)

Tuesday, February 24 Predictions

Prediction Record: 284-129 (ATS: 202-185-12)

Pittsburgh at Providence: Prediction: Pittsburgh 75, Providence 67
Penn State at Ohio State: Prediction: Ohio State 54, Penn State 45
Northern Iowa at Illinois State: Prediction: Illinois State 65, Northern Iowa 59
Florida State at Boston College: Prediction: Boston College 72, Florida State 68
Florida at LSU: Prediction: LSU 77, Florida 69
Texas A&M at Nebraska: Prediction: Nebraska 63, Texas A&M 57
BYU at San Diego State: Prediction: San Diego State 68, BYU 65

Mid-Major Madness: Best of the Rest

This is the final installment in a series we started running again about a month ago here at March Madness All Season. We did it last year from late January to the end of the season. "Mid-Major Madness" is simply a weekly column chronicling the small-conference sleepers that I feel have the best shot at pulling an upset or two during the NCAA Tournament. The only real criterion is that a team has to be a projected 11 seed or lower in the Big Dance and from outside the major conferences. We looked at all the non-BCS conferences and teams last month, but these are the real sleepers for March. With Championship Week kicking off for some conferences next week, thus the “Mid-Major Madness” column ending, we decided to pick several teams for our last edition. Last Week: North Dakota State. Next Up: A variety of teams

Obvious Choices

Creighton: The Bluejays were one of the favorites to win the Missouri Valley before the year started, but many thought those chances were done once they were 5-4 in league play. However, they have won eight in a row to move into a tie for first place with Northern Iowa. Creighton has a slew of solid wins, including Dayton, New Mexico, Saint Joseph’s and George Mason. The Bluejays have 11 guys averaging double-figure minutes and they have plenty of options. Guard Booker Woodfox is their leading scorer; he can really shoot it from deep. P’Allen Stinnett is a very good all-around player, while Josh Dotzler is a solid point guard. Cavel Witter heats up in a hurry off the bench. Kenny Lawson Jr. and Justin Carter anchor the frontcourt.

Davidson: Don’t jump off the Wildcats’ bandwagon just yet. Sure, they lost to The Citadel by 18 at home and then looked sluggish in a loss to Butler on Bracket Busters Saturday. However, Stephen Curry was out for the first loss and not fully recovered for the weekend contest. With him healthy, this team can play with anyone in the nation. Curry can score from anywhere on the court and the offense functions through him. The second option is big man Andrew Lovedale, who is a double-double threat every night out. Will Archambault and Bryant Barr can shoot, and Max Paulus-Gosselin is a defensive stopper. Davidson has beaten West Virginia and North Carolina State and also played Duke, Purdue and Oklahoma.

Saint Mary’s: If the Gaels get to the NCAA Tournament, either via the automatic bid or one of the last at-large bids, they are going to be dangerous. The reason is that Patty Mills will finally be healthy. Injured just before halftime in a game they likely would have won at Gonzaga, Mills has been sorely missed by Saint Mary’s, who is just 4-4 without him. He is one of the best point guards in the country and can take over a game. This team has plenty of talent around him, too. The big man tandem of Diamon Simpson and Omar Samhan is one of the best in the nation. Both players are double-double locks nearly every night, while Simpson is a better defender and has more of a face-up game. Samhan can block shots and is a load to stop. Carlin Hughes can play both guard slots, and Mickey McConnell has become a big-time scorer in Mills’ absence.

VCU: The Rams are going to be involved in arguably the most exciting and competitive conference tournament in the country, as the CAA features six teams within two games of each other at the top of the standings. However, they have the most talent and will be a tough out if they make the Dance. If you need convincing, just watch their upset of Duke and near-upset of Pittsburgh two seasons ago. Eric Maynor is still one of the best point guards in the country, and he can carry this team. Larry Sanders is a shot-blocker down low with a developing offensive game. Joey Rodriguez can shoot and handle the ball, while Bradford Burgess and Brandon Rozell bring quickness. Kiril Pishchalnikov is a banger.

Deeper Sleepers

Western Kentucky: We all know about the Hilltoppers from last year’s NCAA Tournament, when they reached the Sweet Sixteen after beating Drake and San Diego. Well, they lost Courtney Lee and Tyrone Brazelton from that team, but don’t count them out. They beat Louisville earlier this season by 14 on a neutral court, and also knocked off Georgia, Southern Illinois and Tulane. They are one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country, making them a threat if they are hitting their shots. A.J. Slaughter and Orlando Mendez-Valdez form an outstanding backcourt tandem that stroke it and dish it, while Steffphon Pettigrew can also shoot the ball from deep. Sergio Kerusch and Jeremy Evans are underrated down low.

American: The Eagles gave Tennessee all it could handle in last year’s NCAA Tournament, and many of the same characters are back from that team. It all starts with the dynamite backcourt of Garrison Carr and Derrick Mercer. Carr is one of the best shooters in the country and could put a team on his back, while Mercer is an excellent point guard who can do it all. Brian Gilmore contributes in a variety of aspects. American is 14-1 in its past 15 games, and will be hitting its stride come Big Dance time. The Eagles slow the pace of the game down to a crawl, making them difficult to beat because they hit their shots at the offensive end and then force very difficult shots at the other end. Plus, they are an excellent defensive rebounding team.

Vermont: The Catamounts are tied with Binghamton for the America East lead right now, and might not get the top seed in the conference tournament, but make no mistake, this team will be a threat should they get to the Big Dance. Mike Trimboli is a very good point guard who can score the ball as well as distribute, and Marquis Blakely is one of the best all-around forwards in the country at both ends of the floor. Colin McIntosh is an excellent third scorer who can shoot, while Maurice Joseph is a former Michigan State transfer. The Catamounts can really score offensively, and they also defend well, blocking shots and forcing turnovers as well as contesting perimeter jumpers. Vermont has lost just once all year by double-figures in regulation (they lost by 15 to Maryland in overtime).

Cornell: The Big Red started slow this season, but once Louis Dale returned from injury, this team took off. They are 13-2 in their last 15 games, and own wins over La Salle and Boston University. Plus, they’ve gone on the road and taken on Saint Joseph’s, St. John’s, Indiana, Minnesota, Syracuse and Siena. Cornell is solid at both ends of the floor, shooting the ball very effectively offensively and stifling opponents at the other end. Ryan Wittman is a match-up nightmare; he and Dale can really stroke the ball. Jeff Foote gives them size down low, and Geoff Reeves is a good complimentary scorer. Could this be another Ivy League sleeper?

Morgan State: I’ve got to have a No. 16 seed on here, just in case it happens (we all know it will happen eventually). And it certainly looks like Morgan State would be the best bet at this point. The Bears have defeated Maryland and DePaul on the road, and also knocked off Marshall on a neutral court. Furthermore, this team faced Washington, Utah, Saint Mary’s, Wisconsin-Green Bay and Mississippi – they will not be afraid of anyone. They defend the ball tremendously well, forcing turnovers and tough shots. Reggie Holmes is a very good scorer and Marquis Kately is tough to guard. Kevin Thompson bangs inside.

Bracket Breakdown

AS OF FEBRUARY 23, 2009

This Week’s Bracket (expand/magnify bracket picture if necessary)

Breakdown by Conference

ACC (7): North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State, Boston College, Maryland
Big East (7): Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Louisville, Villanova, Marquette, West Virginia, Syracuse
Big Ten (7): Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Penn State
Big 12 (4): Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, Texas
Pac-10 (5): Washington, Arizona State, UCLA, California, Arizona
SEC (5): LSU, South Carolina, Tennessee, Florida, Kentucky
Atlantic-10 (3): Xavier, Dayton, Temple
Mountain West (3): Utah, UNLV, BYU
West Coast (2): Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s

One-Bid Conferences (22): America East (Binghamton); Atlantic Sun (Jacksonville); Big Sky (Weber State); Big South (Radford); Big West (Long Beach State); Colonial (VCU); Conference USA (Memphis); Horizon (Butler); Ivy (Cornell); MAC (Buffalo); MAAC (Siena); MEAC (Morgan State); Missouri Valley (Creighton); Northeast (Robert Morris); Ohio Valley (Tennessee-Martin); Patriot (American); Southern (Davidson); Southland (Stephen F. Austin); Summit (North Dakota State); Sun Belt (Western Kentucky); SWAC (Alabama State); WAC (Utah State)

Last Four In: BYU, Saint Mary’s, Maryland, Temple
Last Four Out: Cincinnati, San Diego State, Oklahoma State, UAB
Next Four Out: USC, Kansas State, Miami (Fl.), Michigan

Click here for a list of this week's top games.

Key Games this Week

Louisville at Georgetown (Monday): The Hoyas desperately need a win to keep their NCAA hopes alive, while Louisville is looking for a Big East title.

Kansas at Oklahoma (Monday): A battle for first place in the Big 12. However, the Sooners will likely be without Blake Griffin; can they win without him?

Pittsburgh at Providence (Tuesday): The Panthers are looking like the overall No. 1 seed in the Tournament, while the Friars could use a marquee win on their resume.

Penn State at Ohio State (Tuesday): Another bubble team that could really use a big win, Penn State has been solid on the road. OSU is struggling and needs to bounce back.

Northern Iowa at Illinois State (Tuesday): Although streaking Creighton is in first right now in the MVC, UNI is tied with the Bluejays and ISU is just one game out.

Florida State at Boston College (Tuesday): Florida State likely clinched a bid with its two wins this past week, while Boston College would lock one up with a win.

Florida at LSU (Tuesday): With the SEC East a muddled mess, LSU has taken advantage to become clearly the best team in the league. UF is on the bubble.

Texas A&M at Nebraska (Tuesday): Two bubble teams in the Big 12. A&M had two wins last week to right the ship, while Nebraska badly needs wins.

BYU at San Diego State (Tuesday): After Utah, the race in the Mountain West is crowded. Both of these teams have chances at an at-large; the winner gets the inside track.

Kentucky at South Carolina (Wednesday): An SEC bubble battle. Both teams are tied for the SEC East lead at 8-4, but neither is anything close to a lock for a bid.

Dayton at Rhode Island (Wednesday): Never thought I’d be mentioning Rhode Island this late in the season, but the Rams are just one game out of the A-10 lead. Dayton needs to bounce back after its road loss to Saint Louis.

Connecticut at Marquette (Wednesday): A battle amongst the four teams fighting for first in the Big East. Does Marquette have anyone to stop Hasheem Thabeet? Does UConn have the guards to match-up with Marquette?

Virginia Tech at Clemson (Wednesday): Virginia Tech is in dire need of a marquee win for its resume, while Clemson is fighting for a top-two seed.

Duke at Maryland (Wednesday): Can Maryland complete the home sweep of UNC and Duke? A win by the Terps would likely lock up a bid for the Dance.

Kansas State at Missouri (Wednesday): Missouri is developing as a Final Four sleeper in March, while Kansas State could use a win for its bubble profile.

UNLV at Utah (Wednesday): UNLV picked up a huge win over BYU on Saturday to stay in the field, while Utah is a lock for the Dance, barring a collapse.

West Virginia at Cincinnati (Thursday): Another game involving a team firmly in the field, and a bubble team looking for a win. Cincy needs a marquee victory.

Minnesota at Illinois (Thursday): Minnesota snapped out of its funk with a win over Northwestern, while Illinois bounced back from its dismal performance against Penn State with a win at Ohio State.

Memphis at UAB (Thursday): One of the more intriguing games of the week. A win by UAB could put the Blazers into next week’s projected NCAA field.

Purdue at Michigan (Thursday): Purdue is one of the hottest teams in the Big Ten, while Michigan blew a chance on the road when it lost in OT at Iowa.

USC at California (Thursday): USC is falling out of the at-large picture quickly after its loss to Washington and the reported aftermath of it, while California is coming off of a loss to Oregon State.

Arizona State at Washington (Thursday): A potential battle for the Pac-10 title. ASU escaped with a win over Arizona, while Washington picked up a split against the LA schools.

Siena at Niagara (Friday): Siena has the MAAC title wrapped up already, but a loss to second-place Niagara would likely mean the Saints need to win the conference tourney. Niagara is an impressive 22-7 thus far.

Road to Selection Sunday

Welcome back to the "Road to Selection Sunday". As stated last week, it is basically a recap of the past couple of days in college basketball, usually the weekend that was just completed. It will go over the teams on the bubble that helped or hurt themselves, teams in the NCAA Tournament whose seed is rising and falling, and much more.

What a wild week in college basketball. The top three teams in the country lost, and there were a couple of other results that shook up the NCAA Tournament landscape. Also, there was the Bracket Busters series, which saw plenty of at-large contenders and conference leaders jockeying for position come Selection Sunday. In terms of the bubble teams, many squads didn’t take advantage of opportunities to boost their resume, while others picked up big wins to help out their profiles for the Big Dance. Let's take a look at all the teams that were affected by this weekend's results.

Teams close to locking up bids to the NCAA Tournament:
Arizona**: Despite the Wildcats’ loss at Arizona State Sunday night, they will coast into the NCAA Tournament if they continue to play the way they are.
LSU: With the Tigers’ 11-1 SEC record nearly locking up the conference title, they might be the only sure thing in the league this season.
Utah: The Utes are very likely to win the Mountain West title. Combine that with a shocking RPI of 10, they should make the Big Dance unless they completely collapse.

Teams on the bubble that helped themselves:
Miami (Fl.): The Hurricanes badly needed a win in order to keep their at-large hopes alive, and they got it, in the form of an 11-point victory over Boston College.
Maryland: The Terrapins might have helped themselves more than any other bubble team, knocking off North Carolina in overtime behind a Grevis Vasquez’s triple-double.
Notre Dame: Left for dead just a couple of weeks ago, the Irish dominated Providence on the road on Saturday to move back into the at-large hunt.
Oklahoma State: In a battle of bubble teams, the Cowboys defeated Baylor by 10. It was their third win in a row and got them back to .500 in the Big 12.
Kansas State: The Wildcats have now won eight of their last nine games, after knocking off Iowa State on the road. They still need to boost their computer numbers.
Texas A&M: The Aggies were pretty much out of contention heading into the week, but they defeated Texas at home and Texas Tech on the road.
Kentucky: The Wildcats completed their sweep of Tennessee to keep pace in the SEC East. They need to become more consistent down the stretch, though.
Florida: The Gators knocked off Vanderbilt on Saturday to stay in a tie for first place in the division. They face a tough finishing stretch to the season.
South Carolina: The Gamecocks bounced back from a tough loss at Mississippi State with a close win over Arkansas on Saturday. 8-4 in the SEC.
Temple: The Owls continue to win games and keep their at-large hopes alive. Their blowout win over St. Bonaventure on Sunday brought them to 9-3 in the A-10.
Saint Mary’s: The Gaels absolutely needed to beat Utah State on Saturday to keep their at-large hopes alive without Patty Mills, and that’s exactly what they did.
Siena: The Saints are going to be an interesting case come Selection Sunday, but their win over Northern Iowa on Saturday was their 12th in 13 games. RPI is 24.
UAB: The Blazers don’t have many impressive wins, but they are now 19-8 overall and 9-3 in Conference-USA after blowing out Southern Miss on Saturday.
New Mexico: The Lobos are likely fifth in the Mountain West pecking order, but a blowout win over San Diego State keeps them in the at-large mix.
UNLV: The Runnin’ Rebels overcame a late BYU run to pick up a one-point win over the Cougars and keep their at-large hopes alive in the crowded MWC.

Teams on the bubble that hurt themselves:
Boston College: The Eagles hadn’t played since beating Duke last Sunday, and they were handled by fellow bubble team Miami (Fl.) on Saturday.
Virginia Tech: The Hokies are falling quickly, and need to right the ship fast. A two-point home loss to Florida State was their third in a row, and could be costly.
Cincinnati: The Bearcats had a chance to pick up a marquee win against Louisville, but couldn’t handle the flood of Cardinals’ runs and were defeated.
Providence: The Friars suffered a very costly loss on Saturday at home to Notre Dame. It dropped their RPI to about 75 and left them in eighth place.
Michigan: The Wolverines really hurt their at-large chances with a blown lead at Iowa and subsequent defeat in overtime. Now below .500 in the Big Ten.
USC: A win over Washington State brought some optimism, but a loss at home to Washington and some in-fighting after the game showed this team might be falling.
Utah State: The Aggies don’t have a great non-conference resume at all, and a poor performance at Saint Mary’s on Saturday night doesn’t bode well for Selection Sunday.
Davidson: The Wildcats have now lost two in a row and three of their last five after falling to Butler on Saturday. Stephen Curry and co. have to win the Southern tournament.
San Diego State: The Aztecs were at the top of the Mountain West just a couple of weeks ago, but they have lost two of three to drop to 8-4 in the league.
BYU: The Cougars were playing some of the best basketball in the Mountain West, but their one-point loss at UNLV puts them back to the rest of the pack.

Teams trying to work themselves into the at-large conversation:
Creighton: The Bluejays struggled mightily during the middle part of the season, but they have now won eight in a row and are tied atop the Missouri Valley.

Teams falling from the at-large conversation:
Georgetown: The Hoyas need to essentially win out and then win a game or two in the Big East Tournament after their home loss to Marquette. 4-10 in 2009.
Baylor: The Bears needed to basically win out to get to the Dance, but their double-digit loss at Oklahoma State dropped them to 4-8 in the Big 12.
Nebraska: The Cornhuskers had an outside shot at an at-large bid, but they have been destroyed in back-to-back weeks against Missouri and Kansas.
Mississippi State: The Bulldogs had a very slim shot at an at-large bid, but a double-overtime loss to Alabama on Saturday all but ends their NCAA hopes.

Teams whose seed is rising:
Florida State: The Seminoles are officially a lock for the NCAA Tournament – and could be in the mix for an ACC title. With their road win at Virginia Tech, they are just 1.5 games out.
Pittsburgh: With losses by Connecticut (to the Panthers), Oklahoma and North Carolina, Pittsburgh moves into the top overall spot in the rankings.
West Virginia: The Mountaineers have moved completely out of bubble talk after winning their third in a row, on the road against Rutgers.
Purdue: The Boilermakers dominated Michigan State during the week and then defeated Indiana by 14 on Saturday. They are only a game back of the Spartans.
Missouri: The Tigers could be a sleeper for a top-two seed and a Big 12 title. They have won six in a row to move to 10-2 in the conference, but face a tough upcoming stretch.
Arizona State**: After a slump earlier this month, the Sun Devils seem to be hitting their stride. Their win Sunday night over Arizona was their fifth in a row.
Gonzaga: The Bulldogs haven’t defeated a sure-fire NCAA team yet, but they are unbeaten in West Coast Conference play and wrapped up a title.
Memphis: With all the top seeds falling in the past week and the crowds at the top of the ACC and the Big East, can the Tigers sneak in and grab a top seed?

Teams whose seed is falling:
Syracuse: The knock on the Orange was that they couldn’t win on the road; now, they can’t win at home either. They fell to Villanova to drop to 7-7 in the Big East.
Ohio State: The Buckeyes dropped to .500 in the Big Ten after its loss at home to Illinois, a team that was coming off of a 33-point performance at home.
UCLA: The Bruins are struggling mightily after their four-game winning streak. They have lost three of four, including a home defeat to Washington State on Saturday.
California: The Golden Bears were in the mix for a Pac-10 title but a loss at Oregon State have dropped them back in the conference. 1.5 games out.
Tennessee: The Volunteers’ abysmal performance against Kentucky dropped them to fourth in the SEC East. They are now firmly on the NCAA bubble.
Dayton: The Flyers seemed to have an at-large bid wrapped up, but a road loss to sub-100 Saint Louis is a huge mark on their NCAA Tournament resume.

Number one seeds as of this week:
1. Pittsburgh: The Panthers have the No. 1 RPI, a top-15 SOS and the most top-25 wins in the country. They are also likely No. 1 in the polls after this wild week.
2. Oklahoma: The Sooners’ loss at Texas on Saturday was essentially without Blake Griffin, who was knocked out (no pun intended) with a concussion. They face Kansas Monday.
3. Connecticut: The Huskies have to prove they are a No. 1 seed without the injured Jerome Dyson. They missed a golden opportunity with a blown lead vs. Pitt.
4. North Carolina: The Tar Heels suffered their third conference loss of the year in overtime at Maryland to drop them to the final No. 1 seed. 15 wins vs. the top-100.

CHN Player of the Week, Feb. 22

Player of the Week: DeJuan Blair, Pittsburgh

Although there are plenty of critics, Bracket Busters weekend is one of the most exciting two days of college basketball all season if you’re someone that likes mid-major basketball. Bubble teams that are trying to make a move so they can get one of the last spots in the NCAA Tournament attempt to catch the committee’s eyes with a big win, while conference leaders need to grab solid victories to boost their resumes in case they don’t win the conference tournament. However, despite all the hoopla surrounding the non-BCS teams this weekend, the performances that caught everyone’s eyes came out of the power conferences – and we might have had our closest race yet for the weekly honor.

Any talk of the top single-game performances of the week has to include Maryland’s Greivis Vasquez. The fiery junior had one of the more memorable games of the season, finishing with a triple-double – 35 points, 11 rebounds, 10 assists – as well as two steals and three blocks in an overtime win against North Carolina. However, the Terps were destroyed earlier in the week by Clemson, so it was tough to justify giving him the award. One of the best team performances of the week came from Florida State, mainly on the shoulders of Toney Douglas, who averaged 23 points and four assists in wins over Miami (Fl.) and Virginia Tech. Unlike last week, there was not a multitude of phenomenal performances, but Marquette’s Wesley Matthews (23.5 points per game in two wins) and Kansas’ Cole Aldrich (20.0 ppg, 11.5 rpg) were very solid. In the world of the Bracket Busters, Omar Samhan of Saint Mary’s had 17 points, 12 rebounds and four blocks in a must-win over Utah State (as well as 20 and 10 earlier in the week against San Diego), while Butler’s Gordon Heyward finished with 27 points and nine rebounds at Davidson. The best performance of the week, though, had to go to Pittsburgh’s DeJuan Blair, the Collegehoops.net Player of the Week.

Heading into Pittsburgh’s showdown with Connecticut on Monday, all the talk was of UConn’s Hasheem Thabeet and his rise into the Player of the Year discussion. Apparently Blair was tired of it. He had 22 points and 23 rebounds – six offensive – against Thabeet, thoroughly dominating the 7-3 center all night long. He followed that up with a 20-point, 18-rebound – ten of them offensive – performance in just 23 minutes of playing time against DePaul. On the week, Blair averaged 21 points, 20.5 rebounds (8.0 offensive rebounds) and 1.5 blocks per game, shooting 56 percent from the field. On the season, Blair is averaging 15.8 points and 13.0 rebounds per game, shooting nearly 60 percent from the floor. Furthermore, according to Ken Pomeroy’s statistics, Blair is by far the best offensive rebounder in the country. He could lead Pitt to the Final Four.

Finalists:
- Greivis Vasquez, Maryland
- Toney Douglas, Florida State
- Omar Samhan, Saint Mary’s

Weekend Preview

Bubble battles. Key conference tilts. Oh, and a top-10 showdown in the ACC. That's not even mentioning Bracket Busters, where mid-majors from across the country go at it on national television. This set of games could mean the difference between the NCAA and the NIT to many teams should they not win their conference tournament. No matter what games you are interested in, there are plenty of options to choose from this weekend; it has everything. To be honest, this is definitely the most jam-packed weekend of the season – I’ve never included so many games in the “Weekend Preview.” There’s 43 of them, so dig in.

Top Games

Tennessee at Kentucky (Saturday, 1:00 PM, CBS): Rivalry in the SEC East – and potentially a must-win for one or both of these teams. They are each 7-4 in the conference, tied with Florida and South Carolina for first-place. UK needs a win to stay in the field, while Tennessee is heading in the wrong direction. Prediction: Kentucky 72, Tennessee 66

Louisville at Cincinnati (Saturday, 2:00 PM, ESPN FullCourt/Regional TV): A huge opportunity for Cincinnati to pick up a marquee win for its NCAA Tournament resume. The Bearcats have a solid profile, but it lacks a big win outside of Syracuse. Louisville has a chance to win the Big East and maybe get a No. 1 seed. Prediction: Louisville 70, Cincinnati 67

Washington at USC (Saturday, 7:00 PM, FSN Regional): Another big chance for a bubble team to pick up a win over a top-20 team. USC was the first team left out of my field on Monday, and the Trojans beat Washington State last night. Washington fell short at UCLA last night, but the Huskies are still in first in the Pac-10. Prediction: USC 69, Washington 64

Florida State at Virginia Tech (Saturday, 8:00 PM, Regional TV): Big-time game in the ACC between a team who can basically clinch an NCAA bid with a win (FSU), and a team that needs to start winning games (Tech). FSU is coming off a win over Miami (Fl.), while Va. Tech has lost four of its last six games. Prediction: Virginia Tech 66, Florida State 61

Oklahoma at Texas (Saturday, 9:00 PM, ESPN): A battle in the Big 12. Texas has been struggling lately, but the Longhorns are tough at home and they have the depth inside to give Blake Griffin trouble. The Sooners haven’t played an NCAA team in several weeks; will their complacence catch up to them? Prediction: Oklahoma 74, Texas 72

Villanova at Syracuse (Sunday, 1:00 PM, CBS): Expect plenty of points and transition basketball in this one. Villanova has developed into one of the best teams in the Big East over the past month, while Syracuse is just 3-6 in its last nine games. However, the Orange face a favorable finishing schedule, which should get them a bid. Prediction: Syracuse 86, Villanova 81

Illinois at Ohio State (Sunday, 1:00 PM, CBS): Two teams who were upset during the week, but still have good enough profiles to feel comfortable about the NCAA Tournament. Illinois scored 33 points at home in a loss to Penn State – yes, seriously 33 points. Ohio State went into Northwestern and was knocked off by the Wildcats. Prediction: Ohio State 55, Illinois 48

Wisconsin at Michigan State (Sunday, 3:00 PM, ESPN): Surprisingly, if you look at the standings, only two games separate the Badgers and Spartans. Wisconsin has won five in a row since losing six in a row. Michigan State has the most talent in the Big Ten, but it was just obliterated by Purdue by 18 on Tuesday. Prediction: Michigan State 58, Wisconsin 47

Wake Forest at Duke (Sunday, 7:45 PM, FSN): Arguably the best game of the weekend. Both teams have been struggling lately, but both are still top-10 teams. Wake Forest has won two in a row since losing four of its previous six. Duke has lost four of its last seven to fall into a four-way tie for second place in the ACC. Prediction: Duke 82, Wake Forest 77

Arizona at Arizona State (Sunday, 10:00 PM, FSN): Intrastate rivalry in the southwest. Both teams are still in the hunt for a Pac-10 title, as ASU sits a half-game behind Washington and Arizona is just 1.5 games out. Both teams are also hot, as ASU has won four in a row and UA has picked up seven wins in a row. Prediction: Arizona State 68, Arizona 63

Bubble Battles

Notre Dame at Providence (Saturday, 12:00 PM, ESPN FullCourt/Regional TV): A must-win for both teams. Notre Dame needs to pick up a solid road win, while Providence simply can’t afford a loss at home to ND at this point. Prediction: Providence 84, Notre Dame 74

Boston College at Miami (Fl.) (Saturday, 12:00 PM, ESPN FullCourt/Regional TV): Battle in the ACC. Boston College boosted its resume with a win over Duke, while Miami has lost six of seven and absolutely needs to win this game. Prediction: Miami (Fl.) 73, Boston College 66

Baylor at Oklahoma State (Saturday, 1:45 PM, ESPN FullCourt/Regional TV): Expect a ton of points and not much defense in this one. Baylor snapped a six-game losing streak last week, while OK St. has won two in a row. Prediction: Oklahoma State 90, Baylor 83

San Diego State at New Mexico (Saturday, 3:00 PM, Versus): Two of the many Mountain West teams in the at-large mix. SDSU has won five of its last six, while New Mexico is making a late run, winning seven of 10. Prediction: New Mexico 71, San Diego State 65

BYU at UNLV (Saturday, 11:00 PM, CBS College Sports): The top teams in the preseason battle for an at-large spot. BYU is rising, winning five in a row, while UNLV is heading the opposite way, dropping three of its last five league games. Prediction: UNLV 72, BYU 68

Northwestern at Minnesota (Sunday, 7:00 PM, Big Ten Network): Both of these teams on the bubble, you ask? Yup. Northwestern has five wins against the top-50, while Minnesota is struggling lately, losing four of five. Prediction: Minnesota 55, Northwestern 44

Conference Clashes

Holy Cross at American (Saturday, 2:00 PM): The Patriot League lead is up-for-grabs in this one. Holy Cross is 9-2 in the league, one game back of the Eagles. American has some talent, and has won 12 of its last 13 games. HC won the first meeting. Prediction: American 68, Holy Cross 56

Southern Miss at UAB (Saturday, 2:00 PM, CBS College Sports): Conference-USA is likely a one-big league, but UAB is its best hope for an at-large bid. The Blazers need to keep winning to pad their record for the Selection Committee. Prediction: UAB 77, Southern Miss 63

Marquette at Georgetown (Saturday, 2:00 PM, ESPN): A must-win for Georgetown if the Hoyas still harbor at-large hopes. They’ve lost seven of nine. Marquette is just a half-game behind Connecticut for first place in the league. Prediction: Georgetown 72, Marquette 68

Vanderbilt at Florida (Saturday, 3:00 PM, ESPN FullCourt/Regional TV): Battle in the SEC East. Vanderbilt is coming off of a solid win over Kentucky, while Florida can’t afford another slip-up to an inferior SEC team. The Gators are just 4-4 in their last eight. Prediction: Florida 75, Vanderbilt 65

North Carolina at Maryland (Saturday, 3:30 PM, ABC): Every time Maryland plays a top ACC team, the Terrapins implode. They lost by 41 to Duke, 17 to North Carolina and 29 to Clemson. Can they pull off the huge upset for their resume? Prediction: North Carolina 94, Maryland 84

Nebraska at Kansas (Saturday, 4:00 PM, ESPN FullCourt/Regional TV): Nebraska still has a chance at an at-large bid, and a win here would do wonders for its resume. KU is one game back of Oklahoma, ahead of their showdown in Norman on Monday. Prediction: Kansas 76, Nebraska 62

Radford at VMI (Saturday, 4:00 PM, MASN): A battle between the top teams in the Big South. Radford holds a two-game lead on VMI, winning 12 of its last 13. VMI has lost two in a row, but won the first meeting between the two teams. Prediction: VMI 96, Radford 89

Texas A&M at Texas Tech (Saturday, 6:00 PM, ESPN FullCourt/Regional TV): A&M’s at-large hopes are fading quickly, as it has lost seven of its last 11. OK State won at Tech on Wednesday; A&M needs to do the same thing. Prediction: Texas A&M 77, Texas Tech 71

Kansas State at Iowa State (Saturday, 6:00 PM, ESPN FullCourt/Regional TV): Another Big 12 team in need of a win to keep its at-large hopes alive. KSU has won seven of its last eight, the most recent one coming over North Carolina Central. That won’t help the non-conference SOS. Prediction: Kansas State 69, Iowa State 60

Arkansas at South Carolina (Saturday, 7:00 PM): Surprise, surprise: a must-win for an SEC East team. South Carolina fell on the road to Mississippi State on Wednesday, and needs to keep pace for the division crown and an at-large bid. Prediction: South Carolina 82, Arkansas 70

St. Bonaventure at Temple (Sunday, 2:00 PM, FS Ohio): Temple is making a late run at an at-large bid out of the Atlantic-10, winning four in a row. Combined with the Owls’ impressive computer numbers and they might have a shot at a bid. Prediction: Temple 79, St. Bonaventure 61

Michigan at Iowa (Sunday, 5:05 PM, Big Ten Network): Michigan has won two in a row in the conference to get back to .500 in the Big Ten. A road win here would make them an interesting case come Monday for the updated field. Prediction: Michigan 57, Iowa 54

Bracket Busters (Click here for a complete preview of BracketBusters weekend)

Illinois State at Niagara (Friday, 7:00 PM, ESPN2): Not much postseason hope for either of these teams, despite their gaudy records. They will both have to win their conference tournaments. Illinois State started the season 14-0 before going 5-5 in its next 10. It has since won three in a row to get within two games of the league lead. Niagara is second in the MAAC, behind Siena. The Purple Eagles are fun to watch and have plenty of options offensively. Prediction: Niagara 76, Illinois State 70

VCU at Nevada (Friday, 9:00 PM, ESPNU): Two teams with high expectations coming into the season, but have disappointed somewhat – more so Nevada. VCU overtook Northeastern for the lead in the CAA after beating Delaware on Wednesday. Nevada was expected to win the WAC heading into the year, but some off-the-court problems slowed them early and Utah State has run away with the league. Prediction: VCU 72, Nevada 69

Northeastern at Wright State (Saturday, 11:00 AM, ESPN2): The early game on Saturday features the former season-long leader in the CAA and a potential sleeper in the Horizon. Northeastern dropped into second in the CAA after losing four of its last five. Wright State is fourth in the Horizon, but the Raiders have some pieces to make a run. Prediction: Wright State 58, Northeastern 50

Liberty at Old Dominion (Saturday, 11:00 AM, ESPNU): If Stephen Curry doesn’t play this weekend, at least you can see his brother, Seth, lead the way for Big South contender Liberty. Old Dominion is one of seven teams in the CAA with at least nine wins in the league. Prediction: 70, Liberty 63

Butler at Davidson (Saturday, 12:00 PM, ESPN): Two of the best mid-majors in the country all season long are both heading into this game on a sour note. Butler has lost two in a row, to Loyola (Chicago) and Wisconsin-Milwaukee, while Davidson has lost two of its last four, as well as the country’s leading scorer, Stephen Curry, to an ankle injury. Curry might be back for this game. Prediction: Davidson 67, Butler 62

Buffalo at Vermont (Saturday, 1:00 PM, ESPN2): You might see both of these teams pop up in your bracket come Selection Sunday. Vermont is the best team in the America East, a game up on Binghamton. Buffalo took Connecticut to the wire earlier this season, foreshadowing a potential MAC title run. Two straight losses ended a 9-0 start in league play, though. Prediction: Vermont 75, Buffalo 69

Northern Iowa at Siena (Saturday, 3:00 PM, ESPN2): This game was a lot more enticing when it first announced. Northern Iowa has lost three of its last four and is now only a half-game up in the Missouri Valley standings. Siena has clinched the MAAC title. UNI has five players averaging at least nine points per game, indicative of its balanced offense. Siena is a potential sleeper come March – if the Saints make the Tournament. Their non-conference resume is not all that impressive; they might need the MAAC’s automatic bid. Prediction: Siena 74, Northern Iowa 64

Miami (Ohio) at Evansville (Saturday, 3:30 PM, ESPNU): Miami (Ohio) has some very good computer numbers and have moved to within a game of Buffalo in the MAC standings. Evansville started hot but has since fizzled in Missouri Valley play, sitting below .500 in the league. Prediction: Miami (Ohio) 61, Evansville 56

Utah State at Saint Mary’s (Saturday, 5:00 PM, ESPN2): Two teams that will be sweating on Selection Sunday should they not win their respective conference tournaments. Saint Mary’s will be sweating more, as the Gaels are just 3-4 without leading scorer Patty Mills, who is likely out until the West Coast Conference Tournament. Utah State lost its first WAC game of the season last weekend against Boise State, and can’t afford too many more slip-ups. Prediction: Utah State 71, Saint Mary’s 68

Wisconsin-Green Bay at Long Beach State (Saturday, 5:30 PM, ESPNU): Two potential NCAA Tournament teams, if they pull an upset over the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament. Both teams are currently in second-place in their respective leagues, but both have also already shown the ability to beat the frontrunner in their league. Green Bay defeated Butler earlier this season in the Horizon, while LBSU knocked off CSU-Northridge in the Big West. Prediction: Wisconsin-Green Bay 81, Long Beach State 75

Hofstra at Fairfield (Saturday, 7:00 PM, ESPN360.com): Hofstra is a dangerous team in the CAA, led by scoring guard Charles Jenkins. The Pride have won four in a row. Fairfield looked like a threat in the MAAC, but the Stags had two separate three-game losing streaks in league play. Prediction: Hofstra 77, Fairfield 74

Morehead State at Kent State (Saturday, 7:00 PM): Morehead State has the inside track to the automatic bid in the Ohio Valley, but the Eagles are only a half-game up with two league games left. Kent State was the preseason MAC favorite, but struggled early before winning its last seven games. Prediction: Kent State 68, Morehead State 54

Boise State at Portland State (Saturday, 7:30 PM, ESPNU): I guess the third-place team in the WAC taking on the third-place team from the Big Sky is worthy of a BracketBusters television game. Boise State defeated Utah State over the weekend, but lost to Idaho Wednesday night. Portland State has disappointed in league play after an impressive non-conference campaign. Prediction: Portland State 78, Boise State 73

North Dakota State at Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Saturday, 8:00 PM): Probably the best non-TV game of the weekend. North Dakota State has a chance to make some noise come March, thanks to their outstanding three-point shooting ability and ability to take care of the ball. Wisconsin-Milwaukee is coming off of a huge win over Butler at home on Wednesday night, moving into a tie for fourth in the Horizon. That should give them momentum heading into this game. Prediction: Wisconsin-Milwaukee 76, North Dakota State 74

George Mason at Creighton (Saturday, 9:00 PM, ESPNU): Two perennial mid-major powers that won’t get to the NCAA Tournament without the automatic bid from their respective conferences – although Creighton does have a very slim outside shot at an at-large. George Mason is one game out of the CAA lead with just two conference games remaining. Creighton is coming on strong lately, having won its last seven games to move within a half-game of the MVC lead. Prediction: Creighton 73, George Mason 67

Bubble Watch

AS OF FEBRUARY 19, 2009

Bubble Breakdown and Comparison

Welcome back to the Bubble Watch. As we stated last week, it will look at every team in the at-large mix hoping to grab one of the last spots for the NCAA Tournament. As the season enters its final three and a half weeks, it is time for teams on the fence to distinguish themselves from each other with impressive stretch runs. This week had bubble games galore, including almost 20 contests last night that could have had an impact on the at-large picture. With the middle of conferences becoming increasingly crowded, it is going to be an interesting final few weeks. Of course there is still plenty of basketball left to be played. According to the numbers, there are 11 bids still up for grabs, with 30 teams vying for them:

Note: Starting next week, we will try to limit the number of serious bubble teams in the mix.

Locks: 20
Automatic bids from the other conferences: 22
42 Locks Overall

ACC (4): North Carolina, Clemson, Duke, Wake Forest
Big East (5): Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova
Big Ten (3): Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois
Big 12 (3): Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri
Pac-10 (3): Washington, UCLA, Arizona State
SEC (0):
Atlantic-10 (1): Xavier
Mountain West (0):
West Coast (1): Gonzaga

One-Bid Conferences (22): America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial, Conference USA, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Missouri Valley, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Summit, Sun Belt, SWAC, WAC

Teams that need to keep winning to avoid the bubble – these bids are not up for grabs yet (12): Florida State, Syracuse, West Virginia, Ohio State, Minnesota**, Texas, California, Arizona**, LSU, Tennessee**, Dayton, Utah

** In the most precarious position of the group

Note: Utah State, Davidson and Siena are not included, as they are the current leaders in their respective conferences

Thursday, February 19 Predictions

Prediction Record: 251-113 (ATS: 179-162-11)

Minnesota at Michigan (-3.5): Prediction: Michigan 59, Minnesota 53
Western Kentucky at Arkansas-Little Rock (-2): Prediction: Western Kentucky 84, UALR 80
Weber State at Montana (-2.5): Prediction: Montana 68, Weber State 65
Washington at UCLA (-8.5): Prediction: UCLA 71, Washington 64

Top 10 Countdown: Bracket Busters

When the announcement of the Bracket Buster weekend games was released a few weeks ago, most college basketball junkies immediately started scouring the list of 51 games to find the best ones. Obviously, there are several unnecessary games. 7-16 Northern Illinois at 3-24 Southeast Missouri State? Or 4-21 Toledo at 7-19 Indiana State? What about 8-18 Georgia State at 4-21 Eastern Michigan – and that’s just three of the relatively uninteresting games this coming weekend. However, there is also an abundance of quality contests – and not just the televised games. Nearly every "TV game" is a match-up of competitive teams, but there are also a few games outside of the viewing arena that should be followed closely. So, what are the Top Ten Bracket Buster Games? Most won't be surprised at the No. 1 and No. 2, but the rest are debatable.

1. Butler at Davidson (Saturday, 12:00 PM, ESPN): Two of the best mid-majors in the country all season long are both heading into this game on a sour note. Butler has lost two in a row, to Loyola (Chicago) and Wisconsin-Milwaukee, while Davidson has lost two of its last four, as well as the country’s leading scorer, Stephen Curry, to an ankle injury. Curry might be back for this game. Butler is led by the inside-outside duo of freshman shooter Gordon Heyward and sophomore forward Matt Howard. Heyward is a terrific three-point gunner, while Howard is tough to defend down low. Shelvin Mack and Willie Veasley form a very solid backcourt. Davidson is obviously a different team without Curry. With him, though, the Wildcats are tough. Curry can score from anywhere on the court and the offense functions through him. The second option is big man Andrew Lovedale, who is a double-double threat every night out. Will Archambault and Bryant Barr can shoot, and Max Paulus-Gosselin is a defensive stopper.

2. Utah State at Saint Mary’s (Saturday, 5:00 PM, ESPN2): Two teams that will be sweating on Selection Sunday should they not win their respective conference tournaments. Saint Mary’s will be sweating more, as the Gaels are just 2-4 without leading scorer Patty Mills, who is likely out until the West Coast Conference Tournament. Utah State lost its first WAC game of the season last weekend against Boise State, and can’t afford too many more slip-ups. Saint Mary’s, without Mills, is centered around the big man tandem of Diamon Simpson and Omar Samhan. Both players are double-double locks nearly every night, while Simpson is a better defender and has more of a face-up game. Samhan can block shots and is a load to stop. Carlin Hughes runs the show in Mills’ place, and Mickey McConnell has tried to fill Mills’ shoes. Utah State has several key options offensively, chief among them Gary Wilkinson. He is one of the better forwards on the west coast. Tai Wesley starts next to him; he is a very efficient player. Backcourt mates Jared Quayle and Tyler Newbold do a little of everything, including scoring, rebounding, and racking up assists.

3. Northern Iowa at Siena (Saturday, 3:00 PM, ESPN2): This game was a lot more enticing when it first announced. Northern Iowa has lost three of its last four and is now only a half-game up in the Missouri Valley standings. Siena has clinched the MAAC title. UNI has five players averaging at least nine points per game, indicative of its balanced offense. The Panthers start a three-guard lineup, with Johnny Moran arguably the best all-around backcourt member. On the wings, Kwadzo Ahelegbe is a combo guard who can shoot the ball, while Ali Farokhmanesh is a shooter who is capable of big nights. Up front, Adam Koch is one of the better players in the MVC and 7-1 center Jordan Eglseder is an efficient scorer. Siena is a potential sleeper come March – if the Saints make the Tournament. Their non-conference resume is not all that impressive; they might need the MAAC’s automatic bid. They are talented, though. Kenny Hasbrouck is an outstanding guard who can do it all, while Ronald Moore is a terrific passer who can also score inside and out. Edwin Ubiles is a match-up nightmare on the wing, and Alex Franklin, though undersized at 6-5, is a force down low.

4. George Mason at Creighton (Saturday, 9:00 PM, ESPNU): Two perennial mid-major powers that won’t get to the NCAA Tournament without the automatic bid from their respective conferences. George Mason is one game out of the CAA lead with just two conference games remaining. The Patriots have balance, depth and experience. The three-guard backcourt of Dre Smith, John Vaughan and Cam Long brings a little of everything. Long is a scorer and a playmaker, Vaughan can shoot and Smith pitches in everywhere. Darryl Monroe is solid down low. Creighton is coming on strong lately, having won its last seven games to move within a half-game of the MVC lead. The Bluejays have 11 guys averaging double-figure minutes and they have plenty of options. Guard Booker Woodfox is their leading scorer; he can really shoot it from deep. P’Allen Stinnett is a very good all-around player, while Josh Dotzler is a solid point guard. Cavel Witter heats up in a hurry off the bench. Kenny Lawson Jr. and Justin Carter anchor the frontcourt.

5. Buffalo at Vermont (Saturday, 1:00 PM, ESPN2): Don’t laugh: you might see both of these teams pop up in your bracket come Selection Sunday. Vermont is the best team in the America East, a game up on Binghamton. The Catamounts have an outstanding inside-outside tandem in guard Mike Trimboli and forward Marquis Blakely. Trimboli is an excellent scorer and playmaker, while Blakely is hands-down one of the best all-around players in all of college basketball. Colin McIntosh is a very good third option, with former Michigan State transfer Maurice Joseph also getting shots. Buffalo took Connecticut to the wire earlier this season, foreshadowing a potential MAC title run. Two straight losses ended a 9-0 start in league play, though. Rodney Pierce is a go-to player who can put the Bulls on his back if necessary. Calvin Betts is a double-figure scorer and the team’s best rebounder, while Greg Gamble does a little bit of everything. Andy Robinson can stroke it.

6. VCU at Nevada (Friday, 9:00 PM, ESPNU): Two teams with high expectations coming into the season, but have disappointed somewhat – more so Nevada. VCU is still tied for the lead in the CAA, although the Rams lost the head-to-head match-up against Northeastern. Eric Maynor is still one of the best point guards in the country, and he can carry this team. Larry Sanders is a shot-blocker down low with a developing offensive game. Joey Rodriguez can shoot and handle the ball, while Bradford Burgess and Brandon Rozell bring quickness. Kiril Pishchalnikov is a banger. Nevada has an excellent inside-outside duo in guard Armon Johnson and freshman forward Luke Babbitt. Johnson is a scorer who can create for his teammates, while Babbitt is a threat to score in a variety of ways. Malik Cooke and Joey Shaw are solid forward, while Brandon Fields is a quality scorer.

7. Illinois State at Niagara (Friday, 7:00 PM, ESPN2): Not much postseason hope for either of these teams, despite their gaudy records. Illinois State started the season 14-0 before going 5-5 in its next 10. It has since won three in a row to get within two games of the league lead. The Redbirds are very solid offensively, with guards Champ Oguchi and Osiris Eldridge leading the way. Lloyd Phillips and Emmanuel Holloway can really shoot the ball, and Phillips is also a distributor. Dinma Odiakosa is a solid scorer and rebounder down low. Niagara is second in the MAAC, behind Siena. The Purple Eagles are fun to watch and have plenty of options offensively. Tyrone Lewis can really fill it up from beyond the arc, and former Villanova transfer Bilal Benn is one of the best players in the MAAC. Former Connecticut transfer Rob Garrison and Anthony Nelson also start on the perimeter, with big man Benson Egemonye providing scoring and rebounding.

8. Northeastern at Wright State (Saturday, 11:00 AM, ESPN2): The early game on Saturday features the co-leader in the CAA and a potential sleeper in the Horizon. Northeastern is tied atop the CAA with VCU, despite losing three of its last four. The Huskies are led by Matt Janning, one of the best all-around players in the conference. Manny Adako is a solid player up front who does his work inside the arc, while Chaisson Allen is a versatile performer. Eugene Spates can shoot. Wright State is fourth in the Horizon, but the Raiders have some pieces to make a run. Todd Brown can really shoot the three-pointer from the perimeter, while John David Gardner is a solid point guard. Cory Cooperwood is the main man up front.

9. North Dakota State at Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Saturday, 8:00 PM): Probably the best non-TV game of the weekend. North Dakota State has a chance to make some noise come March, thanks to their outstanding three-point shooting ability and ability to take care of the ball. Plus, they have two dynamite go-to players in Ben Woodside and Brett Winkelman. Woodside is one of the most productive players in America, while Winkelman is a scoring and rebounding machine up front. Mike Nelson is an effective three-point shooter who can do a little of everything, and Michael Tveidt has been heating up recently. Wisconsin-Milwaukee is coming off of a huge win over Butler at home on Wednesday night, moving into a tie for fourth in the Horizon. That should give them momentum heading into this game. Tony Boyle is a very good three-point shooter who can also rebound the ball, while Avery Smith is quick and strong with the ball. James Ears is the team’s best rebounder up front, and Ricky Franklin can distribute well.

10. Wisconsin-Green Bay at Long Beach State (Saturday, 5:30 PM, ESPNU): Two potential NCAA Tournament teams, if they pull an upset over the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament. Both teams are currently in second-place in their respective leagues, but both have also already shown the ability to beat the frontrunner in their league. Green Bay defeated Butler earlier this season in the Horizon, while LBSU knocked off CSU-Northridge in the Big West. Green Bay is led by big-time scorer Ryan Tillema, who averages nearly 17 a game despite not starting once. Troy Cotton is another player who can really bomb away from deep, while Rahmon Fletcher gets the offense going. Mike Schachtner and Terry Evans do the damage up front. LBSU has one of the best players on the west coast in Donovan Morris, a high-volume scorer whose numbers have dropped this year. Larry Anderson and shooter Stephan Gilling also start on the perimeter, with Casper Ware racking up assists. T.J. Robinson leads the way up front.

Others to Watch

Liberty at Old Dominion (Saturday, 11:00 AM, ESPNU): If Stephen Curry doesn’t play this weekend, at least you can see his brother, Seth, lead the way for Big South contender Liberty. Old Dominion is one of seven teams in the CAA with at least nine wins in the league.

Miami (Ohio) at Evansville (Saturday, 3:30 PM, ESPNU): Miami (Ohio) has some very good computer numbers and have moved to within a game of Buffalo in the MAC standings. Evansville started hot but has since fizzled in Missouri Valley play, sitting below .500 in the league.

Hofstra at Fairfield (Saturday, 7:00 PM, ESPN360.com): Hofstra is a dangerous team in the CAA, led by scoring guard Charles Jenkins. The Pride have won four in a row. Fairfield looked like a threat in the MAAC, but the Stags had two separate three-game losing streaks in league play.

Morehead State at Kent State (Saturday, 7:00 PM): Morehead State has the inside track to the automatic bid in the Ohio Valley, but the Eagles are only a half-game up with two league games left. Kent State was the preseason MAC favorite, but struggled early before winning its last seven games.

Boise State at Portland State (Saturday, 7:30 PM, ESPNU): I guess the third-place team in the WAC taking on the third-place team from the Big Sky is worthy of a BracketBusters television game. Boise State defeated Utah State over the weekend, but lost to Idaho Wednesday night. Portland State has disappointed in league play after an impressive non-conference campaign.